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Geopolitics·Ship

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Geopolitics·Ship

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

30-34 29%

20-24 20%

15-19 20%

25-29 19%

Polymarket
NEW

30-34 29%

20-24 20%

15-19 20%

25-29 19%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$958 Vol.

2%

10-14

$226 Vol.

13%

15-19

$96 Vol.

20%

20-24

$81 Vol.

20%

25-29

$89 Vol.

19%

30-34

$122 Vol.

29%

35-39

$103 Vol.

18%

40-44

$188 Vol.

18%

45+

$657 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters around 30-34 vessels at 29%, aligning with recent weekly averages reported by maritime trackers like the US Energy Information Administration and Vortexa for crude oil tankers amid routine traffic. Competitive pricing in 15-19 (20.5%) and 40-44 (19%) bins underscores uncertainty from regional escalation risks, including Houthi militia attacks on Red Sea shipping and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy patrols harassing vessels, though no direct Hormuz incidents occurred in the past week. US Fifth Fleet presence has maintained stability, but an Iranian seizure, naval confrontation, or Houthi range extension could suppress volumes and widen the gap toward lower outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,230
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters around 30-34 vessels at 29%, aligning with recent weekly averages reported by maritime trackers like the US Energy Information Administration and Vortexa for crude oil tankers amid routine traffic. Competitive pricing in 15-19 (20.5%) and 40-44 (19%) bins underscores uncertainty from regional escalation risks, including Houthi militia attacks on Red Sea shipping and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy patrols harassing vessels, though no direct Hormuz incidents occurred in the past week. US Fifth Fleet presence has maintained stability, but an Iranian seizure, naval confrontation, or Houthi range extension could suppress volumes and widen the gap toward lower outcomes.

Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters around 30-34 vessels at 29%, aligning with recent weekly averages reported by maritime trackers like the US Energy Information Administration and Vortexa for crude oil tankers amid routine traffic. Competitive pricing in 15-19 (20.5%) and 40-44 (19%) bins underscores uncertainty from regional escalation risks, including Houthi militia attacks on Red Sea shipping and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy patrols harassing vessels, though no direct Hormuz incidents occurred in the past week. US Fifth Fleet presence has maintained stability, but an Iranian seizure, naval confrontation, or Houthi range extension could suppress volumes and widen the gap toward lower outcomes.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30-34" at 28%, followed by "15-19" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" is "30-34" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15-19" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.