Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, trader consensus reflects a slowdown in confirmed Iranian IRGC attacks on merchant ships following the U.S. naval blockade imposed in mid-April, which has deterred mass strikes while enabling selective passages under Iranian oversight. Sporadic successes, including April 18 hits on the Sanmar Herald tanker and an unidentified container ship amid reimposed restrictions, have nudged cumulative tallies toward 2–3 so far, per UKMTO tracking of roughly two dozen prior incidents since March. With twelve days to April 30 resolution—based on verified hits damaging or sinking vessels—the tight 4–5 (38.5%) versus 2–3 (29%) race hinges on fragile diplomacy, such as Iran's proposals for safe Omani-side transit, versus escalation risks from mutual threats and stalled ceasefire talks. U.S. mine-clearing and warship transits further cap Iran's operational tempo, though proxy Houthi threats linger peripherally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
4–5 35.4%
2–3 29%
6–7 10.5%
10+ 7.2%
$75,753 Vol.
$75,753 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
29%
4–5
35%
6–7
11%
8–9
9%
10+
7%
4–5 35.4%
2–3 29%
6–7 10.5%
10+ 7.2%
$75,753 Vol.
$75,753 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
$16,448 Vol.
29%
4–5
$16,687 Vol.
35%
6–7
$5,222 Vol.
11%
8–9
$8,208 Vol.
9%
10+
$4,463 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, trader consensus reflects a slowdown in confirmed Iranian IRGC attacks on merchant ships following the U.S. naval blockade imposed in mid-April, which has deterred mass strikes while enabling selective passages under Iranian oversight. Sporadic successes, including April 18 hits on the Sanmar Herald tanker and an unidentified container ship amid reimposed restrictions, have nudged cumulative tallies toward 2–3 so far, per UKMTO tracking of roughly two dozen prior incidents since March. With twelve days to April 30 resolution—based on verified hits damaging or sinking vessels—the tight 4–5 (38.5%) versus 2–3 (29%) race hinges on fragile diplomacy, such as Iran's proposals for safe Omani-side transit, versus escalation risks from mutual threats and stalled ceasefire talks. U.S. mine-clearing and warship transits further cap Iran's operational tempo, though proxy Houthi threats linger peripherally.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$75,753End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, trader consensus reflects a slowdown in confirmed Iranian IRGC attacks on merchant ships following the U.S. naval blockade imposed in mid-April, which has deterred mass strikes while enabling selective passages under Iranian oversight. Sporadic successes, including April 18 hits on the Sanmar Herald tanker and an unidentified container ship amid reimposed restrictions, have nudged cumulative tallies toward 2–3 so far, per UKMTO tracking of roughly two dozen prior incidents since March. With twelve days to April 30 resolution—based on verified hits damaging or sinking vessels—the tight 4–5 (38.5%) versus 2–3 (29%) race hinges on fragile diplomacy, such as Iran's proposals for safe Omani-side transit, versus escalation risks from mutual threats and stalled ceasefire talks. U.S. mine-clearing and warship transits further cap Iran's operational tempo, though proxy Houthi threats linger peripherally.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$75,753End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, trader consensus reflects a slowdown in confirmed Iranian IRGC attacks on merchant ships following the U.S. naval blockade imposed in mid-April, which has deterred mass strikes while enabling selective passages under Iranian oversight. Sporadic successes, including April 18 hits on the Sanmar Herald tanker and an unidentified container ship amid reimposed restrictions, have nudged cumulative tallies toward 2–3 so far, per UKMTO tracking of roughly two dozen prior incidents since March. With twelve days to April 30 resolution—based on verified hits damaging or sinking vessels—the tight 4–5 (38.5%) versus 2–3 (29%) race hinges on fragile diplomacy, such as Iran's proposals for safe Omani-side transit, versus escalation risks from mutual threats and stalled ceasefire talks. U.S. mine-clearing and warship transits further cap Iran's operational tempo, though proxy Houthi threats linger peripherally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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