Skip to main content
icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)
Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)
Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)

Ended: Apr 26

May 17

May 24

Ended: Apr 26

May 17

May 24

25-49 100.0%

<25 <1%

50-74 <1%

75-99 <1%

Polymarket

$239,031 Vol.

25-49 100.0%

<25 <1%

50-74 <1%

75-99 <1%

Polymarket

$239,031 Vol.

<25

$62,722 Vol.

No

25-49

$40,738 Vol.

Yes

50-74

$39,292 Vol.

No

75-99

$34,876 Vol.

No

100-124

$13,230 Vol.

No

125-149

$15,343 Vol.

No

150+

$32,829 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$239,031
End Date
Apr 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 11:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during April 20-26, driven by verified maritime tracking data from Windward and Kpler confirming a weekly total of 35 vessels—down sharply from 78 the prior week and pre-conflict daily norms exceeding 120. Persistent US-Iran naval standoffs, including mutual blockades, IRGC vessel seizures on April 22, and US interceptions, have enforced minimal commercial flows amid soaring war risk insurance premiums and AIS spoofing by shadow fleets. Daily counts hovered at 2-8 ships, solidifying the low-volume positioning. Realistic challenges would require upward revisions from undetected dark transits, though official tallies now anchor the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$239,031
End Date
Apr 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 11:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 20, 2026, through April 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

icon for Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

33%
icon for Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

77%
icon for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

6%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25-49" at 100%, followed by "<25" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)" has generated $239K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)" is "25-49" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<25" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.