Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid Iran's selective blockade since late February 2026. Daily transits per IMF Portwatch data hover in single digits—around 3-7 recently—with a 7-day moving average below 6, as Iran implements a vetting system favoring "friendly" vessels from China, India, and Brazil, enabling sporadic passages like Indian LPG carriers last week. This fragile uptick offsets earlier 95% traffic drops, but sustains elevated Brent crude near $107 per barrel and supertanker charter rates above $300,000/day amid 20-30% war risk premium spikes. Key catalysts include U.S.-led de-escalation efforts and upcoming IMF daily reports, which could signal normalization or renewed disruptions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
20+
70%
40+
30%
60+
22%
80+
16%
$3,489 Vol.
20+
$1,363 Vol.
70%
40+
$421 Vol.
30%
60+
$1,311 Vol.
22%
80+
$393 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid Iran's selective blockade since late February 2026. Daily transits per IMF Portwatch data hover in single digits—around 3-7 recently—with a 7-day moving average below 6, as Iran implements a vetting system favoring "friendly" vessels from China, India, and Brazil, enabling sporadic passages like Indian LPG carriers last week. This fragile uptick offsets earlier 95% traffic drops, but sustains elevated Brent crude near $107 per barrel and supertanker charter rates above $300,000/day amid 20-30% war risk premium spikes. Key catalysts include U.S.-led de-escalation efforts and upcoming IMF daily reports, which could signal normalization or renewed disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,489End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid Iran's selective blockade since late February 2026. Daily transits per IMF Portwatch data hover in single digits—around 3-7 recently—with a 7-day moving average below 6, as Iran implements a vetting system favoring "friendly" vessels from China, India, and Brazil, enabling sporadic passages like Indian LPG carriers last week. This fragile uptick offsets earlier 95% traffic drops, but sustains elevated Brent crude near $107 per barrel and supertanker charter rates above $300,000/day amid 20-30% war risk premium spikes. Key catalysts include U.S.-led de-escalation efforts and upcoming IMF daily reports, which could signal normalization or renewed disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3,489End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid Iran's selective blockade since late February 2026. Daily transits per IMF Portwatch data hover in single digits—around 3-7 recently—with a 7-day moving average below 6, as Iran implements a vetting system favoring "friendly" vessels from China, India, and Brazil, enabling sporadic passages like Indian LPG carriers last week. This fragile uptick offsets earlier 95% traffic drops, but sustains elevated Brent crude near $107 per barrel and supertanker charter rates above $300,000/day amid 20-30% war risk premium spikes. Key catalysts include U.S.-led de-escalation efforts and upcoming IMF daily reports, which could signal normalization or renewed disruptions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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