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U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

74%

December 31

$79M Vol.

$5M today

$2M Liq.

1,641

Ends in 8 months

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

28%

May 31

$8M Vol.

$2M today

$587K Liq.

449

Ends in 24 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

4%

$9M Vol.

$1M today

$256K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

30%

$8M Vol.

$955K today

$708K Liq.

1

Ends in 24 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

73%

June 30

$14M Vol.

$924K today

$379K Liq.

340

Ends in about 2 months

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

27%

December 31

$11M Vol.

$880K today

$458K Liq.

122

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

54%

$3M Vol.

$620K today

$237K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

76%

June 30

$33M Vol.

$523K today

$234K Liq.

6

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

42%

December 31

$6M Vol.

$395K today

$241K Liq.

107

Ends in 8 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

$16M Vol.

$350K today

$1M Liq.

1

Ends in 24 days

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

66%

Pakistan

$4M Vol.

$331K today

$375K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

<1%

$37M Vol.

$193K today

$249K Liq.

3

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

1%

40+

$3M Vol.

$162K today

$203K Liq.

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

16%

$175K Vol.

$147K today

$60.8K Liq.

3

Ends in 24 days

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

91%

No Meeting before May 11

$2M Vol.

$138K today

$106K Liq.

33

Ends in 3 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

37%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

$231K Vol.

$93.0K today

$144K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

25%

$308K Vol.

$84.5K today

$34.0K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

18%

$287K Vol.

$82.1K today

$35.4K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

17%

$318K Vol.

$70.4K today

$39.6K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

77%

20+

$255K Vol.

$32.2K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for U.S. X Iran that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $234.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 74% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on U.S. X Iran predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.