Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$18,975 Vol.

Dec 31

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,975
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 8:49 PM UTC

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$18,975 Vol.

Market icon

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Dec 31

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

March 31

$17,772 Vol.

5%

December 31

$1,203 Vol.

13%

About

Volume
$18,975
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 8:49 PM UTC

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
shield

Beware of external links.