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World·Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Market icon
World·Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$4,323,172 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$4,323,172 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$3,988,147 Vol.

<1%

April 30

$34,171 Vol.

1%

December 31

$300,854 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but the Biden administration distanced itself from the operation, urging restraint and emphasizing defensive support for Israel without endorsing escalation to direct conflict. No congressional bills or resolutions proposing a formal declaration of war—last used in World War II—have advanced amid ongoing proxy clashes involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah. President Biden has repeatedly affirmed no desire for war, favoring sanctions and diplomacy, while the November 5 presidential election looms as a potential policy pivot depending on the outcome. Structural barriers, including the War Powers Resolution and preference for Authorizations for Use of Military Force, keep formal declaration odds low per trader consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,323,172
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but the Biden administration distanced itself from the operation, urging restraint and emphasizing defensive support for Israel without endorsing escalation to direct conflict. No congressional bills or resolutions proposing a formal declaration of war—last used in World War II—have advanced amid ongoing proxy clashes involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah. President Biden has repeatedly affirmed no desire for war, favoring sanctions and diplomacy, while the November 5 presidential election looms as a potential policy pivot depending on the outcome. Structural barriers, including the War Powers Resolution and preference for Authorizations for Use of Military Force, keep formal declaration odds low per trader consensus.

Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, but the Biden administration distanced itself from the operation, urging restraint and emphasizing defensive support for Israel without endorsing escalation to direct conflict. No congressional bills or resolutions proposing a formal declaration of war—last used in World War II—have advanced amid ongoing proxy clashes involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah. President Biden has repeatedly affirmed no desire for war, favoring sanctions and diplomacy, while the November 5 presidential election looms as a potential policy pivot depending on the outcome. Structural barriers, including the War Powers Resolution and preference for Authorizations for Use of Military Force, keep formal declaration odds low per trader consensus.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 10%, followed by "April 30" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" has generated $4.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" is "December 31" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.