Trump Presidency Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarke...

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Trump Presidency

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$349m Vol.

$58m today

$41m Liq.

1,031

Ends in 11 months

98%

Kevin Warsh

$349m Vol.

$58m today

$41m Liq.

1,031

Ends in 11 months

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Trump Presidency

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

$2m Vol.

$205k today

$162k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

29%

Kristi Noem

$2m Vol.

$205k today

$162k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Trump Presidency

Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

$458k Vol.

$176k today

$87.1k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

100%

Bill Clinton

$458k Vol.

$176k today

$87.1k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

$4m Vol.

$131k today

$125k Liq.

360

Ends in 28 days

80%

<$100b

$4m Vol.

$131k today

$125k Liq.

360

Ends in 28 days

When will Congress pass the next funding bill?

Trump Presidency

When will Congress pass the next funding bill?

$532k Vol.

$119k today

$59.4k Liq.

19

100%

No Bill passed by Jan 31

$532k Vol.

$119k today

$59.4k Liq.

19

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

$5m Vol.

$110k today

$69.3k Liq.

87%

250-500k

$5m Vol.

$110k today

$69.3k Liq.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Trump Presidency

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$12m Vol.

$100k today

$291k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

16%

$12m Vol.

$100k today

$291k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$13m Vol.

$108k Liq.

1,198

Ends in about 2 months

12%

December 31

$13m Vol.

$108k Liq.

1,198

Ends in about 2 months

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Trump Presidency

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$2m Vol.

$24.7k Liq.

399

59%

June 30

$2m Vol.

$24.7k Liq.

399

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Trump Presidency

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4m Vol.

$102k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

32%

$4m Vol.

$102k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$95.0k Vol.

$41.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

8%

December 31

$95.0k Vol.

$41.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Congress pass a funding bill by...?

Trump Presidency

Will Congress pass a funding bill by...?

$73.7k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

1%

January 30

$73.7k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

Will Trump visit China by...?

Trump Presidency

Will Trump visit China by...?

$991k Vol.

$19.4k Liq.

35

Ends in 3 months

82%

April 30, 2026

$991k Vol.

$19.4k Liq.

35

Ends in 3 months

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Trump Presidency

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

$536k Vol.

$62.7k Liq.

12

Ends in 5 months

50%

No meeting by June 30

$536k Vol.

$62.7k Liq.

12

Ends in 5 months

US x Russia military clash by...?

Trump Presidency

US x Russia military clash by...?

$547k Vol.

$39.3k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

10%

December 31, 2026

$547k Vol.

$39.3k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Trump Presidency

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$2m Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

117

9%

June 30, 2026

$2m Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

117

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Trump Presidency

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

$524k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

29

Ends in 5 months

29%

June 30

$524k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

29

Ends in 5 months

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Trump Presidency

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

$383k Vol.

$40.1k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

15%

$383k Vol.

$40.1k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Trump Presidency

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

$317k Vol.

$72.3k Liq.

19

Ends in 11 months

7%

$317k Vol.

$72.3k Liq.

19

Ends in 11 months

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Trump Presidency

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

$1m Vol.

$16.2k Liq.

22%

June 30

$1m Vol.

$16.2k Liq.

Sort by

Event Status