Trump Presidency Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarke...

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Trump Presidency

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$362m Vol.

$10m today

$45m Liq.

1,088

Ends in 11 months

98%

Kevin Warsh

$362m Vol.

$10m today

$45m Liq.

1,088

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Trump Presidency

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$12m Vol.

$292k today

$734k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

12%

$12m Vol.

$292k today

$734k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Trump Presidency

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

$2m Vol.

$257k today

$169k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

30%

Kristi Noem

$2m Vol.

$257k today

$169k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$14m Vol.

$218k today

$51.0k Liq.

1,202

Ends in about 2 months

12%

December 31

$14m Vol.

$218k today

$51.0k Liq.

1,202

Ends in about 2 months

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

$4m Vol.

$80.0k today

$121k Liq.

392

Ends in 27 days

76%

<$100b

$4m Vol.

$80.0k today

$121k Liq.

392

Ends in 27 days

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Trump Presidency

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4m Vol.

$67.6k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

32%

$4m Vol.

$67.6k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Trump Presidency

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$2m Vol.

$14.0k Liq.

391

55%

June 30

$2m Vol.

$14.0k Liq.

391

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

$5m Vol.

$73.9k Liq.

87%

250-500k

$5m Vol.

$73.9k Liq.

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Trump Presidency

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

$1m Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

16%

June 30

$1m Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

US x Russia military clash by...?

Trump Presidency

US x Russia military clash by...?

$564k Vol.

$15.5k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

9%

December 31, 2026

$564k Vol.

$15.5k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$109k Vol.

$39.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

8%

December 31

$109k Vol.

$39.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

$1m Vol.

$16.2k Liq.

40

Ends in 27 days

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

2%

$1m Vol.

$16.2k Liq.

40

Ends in 27 days

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

$149k Vol.

$8.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 27 days

3%

$149k Vol.

$8.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 27 days

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Trump Presidency

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

$541k Vol.

$64.4k Liq.

12

Ends in 5 months

55%

No meeting by June 30

$541k Vol.

$64.4k Liq.

12

Ends in 5 months

Will Trump visit China by...?

Trump Presidency

Will Trump visit China by...?

$995k Vol.

$18.6k Liq.

35

Ends in 3 months

80%

April 30, 2026

$995k Vol.

$18.6k Liq.

35

Ends in 3 months

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

$166k Vol.

$5.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 27 days

5%

$166k Vol.

$5.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 27 days

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Trump Presidency

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

$387k Vol.

$39.3k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

15%

$387k Vol.

$39.3k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Trump Presidency

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

$26.7k Vol.

$3.8k Liq.

6

Ends in 5 months

16%

$26.7k Vol.

$3.8k Liq.

6

Ends in 5 months

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Trump Presidency

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

$939k Vol.

$15.8k Liq.

32

Ends in 11 months

17%

December 31

$939k Vol.

$15.8k Liq.

32

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

$735k Vol.

$2.6k Liq.

24

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

11%

$735k Vol.

$2.6k Liq.

24

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

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