Republican control of the House by a slim 220-215 margin forms the core risk factor behind the 59% implied probability for Trump's impeachment before January 20, 2029, as even modest GOP defections could enable Democratic-led articles amid internal party tensions seen in recent speaker elections and Freedom Caucus disputes. Trump's history of two prior impeachments during his first term weighs heavily on trader consensus, alongside vows from House Democrats for aggressive oversight of his agenda on mass deportations, tariffs, and foreign emoluments. Recent cabinet nomination withdrawals, like Matt Gaetz's for attorney general over ethics probes, underscore transition chaos that could fuel investigations. Traders price in uncertainty from upcoming January 3 congressional organization and special elections potentially narrowing the GOP edge further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2029
NEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$5,925End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$5,925End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the House by a slim 220-215 margin forms the core risk factor behind the 59% implied probability for Trump's impeachment before January 20, 2029, as even modest GOP defections could enable Democratic-led articles amid internal party tensions seen in recent speaker elections and Freedom Caucus disputes. Trump's history of two prior impeachments during his first term weighs heavily on trader consensus, alongside vows from House Democrats for aggressive oversight of his agenda on mass deportations, tariffs, and foreign emoluments. Recent cabinet nomination withdrawals, like Matt Gaetz's for attorney general over ethics probes, underscore transition chaos that could fuel investigations. Traders price in uncertainty from upcoming January 3 congressional organization and special elections potentially narrowing the GOP edge further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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