South Dakota's Republican supermajority in the legislature—63-7 in the House and 32-3 in the Senate—drives the 95.2% implied probability against Governor Kristi Noem's impeachment in 2026, as GOP lawmakers are unlikely to pursue removal of their party's leader absent a major scandal. No active investigations, formal complaints, or bipartisan calls for impeachment have emerged despite past controversies like her 2024 memoir disclosures, with Noem maintaining strong approval in polls. Trader consensus reflects this structural barrier, where House impeachment needs two-thirds approval and Senate conviction a simple majority. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen criminal charges, ethics probes, or a dramatic Democratic midterm gain in 2026, though historical precedents for gubernatorial impeachments remain rare in unified party states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedKristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Dakota's Republican supermajority in the legislature—63-7 in the House and 32-3 in the Senate—drives the 95.2% implied probability against Governor Kristi Noem's impeachment in 2026, as GOP lawmakers are unlikely to pursue removal of their party's leader absent a major scandal. No active investigations, formal complaints, or bipartisan calls for impeachment have emerged despite past controversies like her 2024 memoir disclosures, with Noem maintaining strong approval in polls. Trader consensus reflects this structural barrier, where House impeachment needs two-thirds approval and Senate conviction a simple majority. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen criminal charges, ethics probes, or a dramatic Democratic midterm gain in 2026, though historical precedents for gubernatorial impeachments remain rare in unified party states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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