Trader consensus prices an 89% chance that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, will not be signed into law in 2026, driven primarily by the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold for non-budget legislation. Despite Republican control of the White House, House (narrow majority), and Senate (53-47), the bill—passed by the House in July 2024 and reintroduced early in the 119th Congress—lacks Democratic support needed to overcome cloture, with no recent bipartisan momentum or leadership push. Trump's early-term priorities emphasize border security and spending cuts via reconciliation, sidelining this measure amid gridlock risks before midterms. Upcoming House committee action offers limited catalyst for Senate progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$124,397 Vol.
$124,397 Vol.
$124,397 Vol.
$124,397 Vol.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89% chance that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, will not be signed into law in 2026, driven primarily by the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold for non-budget legislation. Despite Republican control of the White House, House (narrow majority), and Senate (53-47), the bill—passed by the House in July 2024 and reintroduced early in the 119th Congress—lacks Democratic support needed to overcome cloture, with no recent bipartisan momentum or leadership push. Trump's early-term priorities emphasize border security and spending cuts via reconciliation, sidelining this measure amid gridlock risks before midterms. Upcoming House committee action offers limited catalyst for Senate progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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