The Senate filibuster and repeated failure to reach 60 votes remain the dominant barrier keeping the probability of H.R. 22 enactment near zero. Multiple House-passed versions, including attachments to the NDAA and appropriations measures, have cleared the lower chamber yet stalled or fallen short on the Senate floor, with several Republican senators joining Democrats in opposition. With midterms approaching and limited legislative days remaining in 2026, procedural calendars and coalition arithmetic reinforce trader expectations of inaction. A successful override of Senate rules, reconciliation maneuver, or unexpected bipartisan compromise in a lame-duck session could still shift the outcome, though such paths face narrow windows and entrenched resistance.