Republican control of the House has enabled repeated passage of H.R. 22 and related SAVE America Act provisions in 2025 and 2026, yet Senate consideration has consistently fallen short of the 60 votes required for cloture. Multiple floor votes on the measure and attached amendments reached at most 53 yes votes, with some Republican senators joining Democrats in opposition, while attempts to incorporate the requirements into must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or appropriations bills have likewise stalled. As of mid-November 2026, the bill remains pending in the Senate without a path to final passage before the end of the session. Traders assign a 97.9 percent probability against enactment in 2026 because the procedural and vote-count barriers have proven durable across repeated efforts. Late-session negotiations or an unexpected rules change remain the only narrow routes that could still produce a different result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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