The Senate's repeated failure to advance H.R. 22 or its 2026 rebranded versions, including attachments to the NDAA and other must-pass measures, underpins the 96.3% "No" consensus. The original bill cleared the House in April 2025 but stalled upon Senate receipt, while later iterations passed the House in February and July 2026 only to face rejection or procedural blocks in the upper chamber, where 60 votes are typically required. With the 2026 midterms approaching and no breakthrough in recent months, traders view enactment before year-end as highly improbable. Late-session negotiations, rule changes, or post-election lame-duck action remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome.