The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to advance in the Senate despite multiple House passages, including versions approved in April 2025 and February 2026. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold that has not been met, as Democratic opposition remains unified and at least one Republican senator has blocked procedural moves. No Senate floor vote or conference agreement has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural timelines in the current Congress leave limited windows before potential adjournment. Traders assess that without new bipartisan negotiations or a rules change, the measure is unlikely to reach the president for signature this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$166,005 Vol.
$166,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$166,005 Vol.
$166,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to advance in the Senate despite multiple House passages, including versions approved in April 2025 and February 2026. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold that has not been met, as Democratic opposition remains unified and at least one Republican senator has blocked procedural moves. No Senate floor vote or conference agreement has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural timelines in the current Congress leave limited windows before potential adjournment. Traders assess that without new bipartisan negotiations or a rules change, the measure is unlikely to reach the president for signature this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$166,005End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to advance in the Senate despite multiple House passages, including versions approved in April 2025 and February 2026. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold that has not been met, as Democratic opposition remains unified and at least one Republican senator has blocked procedural moves. No Senate floor vote or conference agreement has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural timelines in the current Congress leave limited windows before potential adjournment. Traders assess that without new bipartisan negotiations or a rules change, the measure is unlikely to reach the president for signature this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$166,005End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, will not become law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to advance in the Senate despite multiple House passages, including versions approved in April 2025 and February 2026. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold that has not been met, as Democratic opposition remains unified and at least one Republican senator has blocked procedural moves. No Senate floor vote or conference agreement has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural timelines in the current Congress leave limited windows before potential adjournment. Traders assess that without new bipartisan negotiations or a rules change, the measure is unlikely to reach the president for signature this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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