**Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) announced on March 5, 2026, that he would drop his reelection bid for Texas's 23rd Congressional District following a primary runoff challenge and revelations of an extramarital affair with a former staffer, amid calls from House GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson to exit the race.** Despite the scandal prompting a House Ethics Committee inquiry, Gonzales committed to serving out his full term ending January 2027, continuing active participation such as Appropriations Committee hearings as late as March 25. With the March 31 deadline passed and no resignation, expulsion, or vacancy declared, trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects this stability. Unlikely shifts could arise from adverse ethics findings, health issues, or intensified party pressure, though structural barriers like midterm timing limit feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4,689 Vol.
$4,689 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$4,689 Vol.
$4,689 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tony Gonzalez ceases to be the U.S Representative for Texas' 23rd congressional district for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) announced on March 5, 2026, that he would drop his reelection bid for Texas's 23rd Congressional District following a primary runoff challenge and revelations of an extramarital affair with a former staffer, amid calls from House GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson to exit the race.** Despite the scandal prompting a House Ethics Committee inquiry, Gonzales committed to serving out his full term ending January 2027, continuing active participation such as Appropriations Committee hearings as late as March 25. With the March 31 deadline passed and no resignation, expulsion, or vacancy declared, trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects this stability. Unlikely shifts could arise from adverse ethics findings, health issues, or intensified party pressure, though structural barriers like midterm timing limit feasibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tony Gonzalez ceases to be the U.S Representative for Texas' 23rd congressional district for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$4,689End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tony Gonzalez ceases to be the U.S Representative for Texas' 23rd congressional district for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) announced on March 5, 2026, that he would drop his reelection bid for Texas's 23rd Congressional District following a primary runoff challenge and revelations of an extramarital affair with a former staffer, amid calls from House GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson to exit the race.** Despite the scandal prompting a House Ethics Committee inquiry, Gonzales committed to serving out his full term ending January 2027, continuing active participation such as Appropriations Committee hearings as late as March 25. With the March 31 deadline passed and no resignation, expulsion, or vacancy declared, trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects this stability. Unlikely shifts could arise from adverse ethics findings, health issues, or intensified party pressure, though structural barriers like midterm timing limit feasibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tony Gonzalez ceases to be the U.S Representative for Texas' 23rd congressional district for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gonzalez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tony Gonzalez and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,689End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) announced on March 5, 2026, that he would drop his reelection bid for Texas's 23rd Congressional District following a primary runoff challenge and revelations of an extramarital affair with a former staffer, amid calls from House GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson to exit the race.** Despite the scandal prompting a House Ethics Committee inquiry, Gonzales committed to serving out his full term ending January 2027, continuing active participation such as Appropriations Committee hearings as late as March 25. With the March 31 deadline passed and no resignation, expulsion, or vacancy declared, trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects this stability. Unlikely shifts could arise from adverse ethics findings, health issues, or intensified party pressure, though structural barriers like midterm timing limit feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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