Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout reflects uncertainty over sustained high engagement, with leading bins at 125-130 million votes (24%) and 115-120 million (19%) driven by recent signals of elevated participation. Virginia's April 21 referendum on congressional redistricting saw record rural turnout surpassing 2024 presidential levels, while March primaries in Texas and North Carolina posted strong numbers, including record Latino engagement in South Texas, signaling robust mobilization amid polarization. Polls indicate a Democratic enthusiasm gap, with higher likelihood-to-vote ratings despite Republican claims of base strength, but historical midterm totals like 108 million in 2022 temper expectations. Upcoming primaries in battleground states and generic ballot shifts could tip probabilities toward higher or lower turnout scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated115-120m 19%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 14%
120-125m 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
5%
85-90m
14%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
6%
105-110m
12%
110-115m
14%
115-120m
19%
120-125m
13%
125-130m
25%
130m+
6%
115-120m 19%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 14%
120-125m 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
$319 Vol.
5%
85-90m
$419 Vol.
14%
90-95m
$831 Vol.
1%
95-100m
$269 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$682 Vol.
6%
105-110m
$431 Vol.
12%
110-115m
$504 Vol.
14%
115-120m
$1,020 Vol.
19%
120-125m
$371 Vol.
13%
125-130m
$1,158 Vol.
25%
130m+
$245 Vol.
6%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout reflects uncertainty over sustained high engagement, with leading bins at 125-130 million votes (24%) and 115-120 million (19%) driven by recent signals of elevated participation. Virginia's April 21 referendum on congressional redistricting saw record rural turnout surpassing 2024 presidential levels, while March primaries in Texas and North Carolina posted strong numbers, including record Latino engagement in South Texas, signaling robust mobilization amid polarization. Polls indicate a Democratic enthusiasm gap, with higher likelihood-to-vote ratings despite Republican claims of base strength, but historical midterm totals like 108 million in 2022 temper expectations. Upcoming primaries in battleground states and generic ballot shifts could tip probabilities toward higher or lower turnout scenarios.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$6,248End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout reflects uncertainty over sustained high engagement, with leading bins at 125-130 million votes (24%) and 115-120 million (19%) driven by recent signals of elevated participation. Virginia's April 21 referendum on congressional redistricting saw record rural turnout surpassing 2024 presidential levels, while March primaries in Texas and North Carolina posted strong numbers, including record Latino engagement in South Texas, signaling robust mobilization amid polarization. Polls indicate a Democratic enthusiasm gap, with higher likelihood-to-vote ratings despite Republican claims of base strength, but historical midterm totals like 108 million in 2022 temper expectations. Upcoming primaries in battleground states and generic ballot shifts could tip probabilities toward higher or lower turnout scenarios.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$6,248End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout reflects uncertainty over sustained high engagement, with leading bins at 125-130 million votes (24%) and 115-120 million (19%) driven by recent signals of elevated participation. Virginia's April 21 referendum on congressional redistricting saw record rural turnout surpassing 2024 presidential levels, while March primaries in Texas and North Carolina posted strong numbers, including record Latino engagement in South Texas, signaling robust mobilization amid polarization. Polls indicate a Democratic enthusiasm gap, with higher likelihood-to-vote ratings despite Republican claims of base strength, but historical midterm totals like 108 million in 2022 temper expectations. Upcoming primaries in battleground states and generic ballot shifts could tip probabilities toward higher or lower turnout scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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