Recent primary results and polling show elevated Democratic enthusiasm amid dissatisfaction with the economy and foreign policy, supporting expectations for House turnout near recent midterm levels around 110-120 million votes. Historical benchmarks from 2022 (roughly 108 million) and 2018 provide the baseline, with population growth and expanded early voting options adding upward pressure. Key variables include differential turnout among younger, Latino, and lower-propensity voters, generic ballot momentum, and final get-out-the-vote efforts in the remaining weeks. Strong early voting reports in key states could consolidate support for the leading 115-120 million bracket, while any enthusiasm drop-off among core Democratic groups risks shifting probability toward lower ranges.
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