Recent polling showing an 8-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, combined with elevated opposition enthusiasm to the Trump administration, has kept 2026 House turnout expectations centered near historical midterm highs. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total votes because Democratic mobilization in competitive districts and among likely voters could push participation toward 2018 levels, while Republican efforts to reengage 2024 low-propensity supporters and structural factors like mail voting expansion provide counterbalancing support. Narrow majorities, ongoing redistricting, and economic messaging further sustain uncertainty, with any late shifts in base turnout or national events capable of separating the leading ranges before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated115-120m 26%
120-125m 17%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 16%
$30,800 Vol.
$30,800 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
3%
95-100m
2%
100-105m
6%
105-110m
10%
110-115m
16%
115-120m
26%
120-125m
17%
125-130m
17%
130m+
9%
115-120m 26%
120-125m 17%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 16%
$30,800 Vol.
$30,800 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$617 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$619 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,851 Vol.
3%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
2%
100-105m
$1,225 Vol.
6%
105-110m
$941 Vol.
10%
110-115m
$4,892 Vol.
16%
115-120m
$5,528 Vol.
26%
120-125m
$9,513 Vol.
17%
125-130m
$3,544 Vol.
17%
130m+
$1,691 Vol.
9%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling showing an 8-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, combined with elevated opposition enthusiasm to the Trump administration, has kept 2026 House turnout expectations centered near historical midterm highs. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total votes because Democratic mobilization in competitive districts and among likely voters could push participation toward 2018 levels, while Republican efforts to reengage 2024 low-propensity supporters and structural factors like mail voting expansion provide counterbalancing support. Narrow majorities, ongoing redistricting, and economic messaging further sustain uncertainty, with any late shifts in base turnout or national events capable of separating the leading ranges before November 3.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$30,800End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling showing an 8-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, combined with elevated opposition enthusiasm to the Trump administration, has kept 2026 House turnout expectations centered near historical midterm highs. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total votes because Democratic mobilization in competitive districts and among likely voters could push participation toward 2018 levels, while Republican efforts to reengage 2024 low-propensity supporters and structural factors like mail voting expansion provide counterbalancing support. Narrow majorities, ongoing redistricting, and economic messaging further sustain uncertainty, with any late shifts in base turnout or national events capable of separating the leading ranges before November 3.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$30,800End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling showing an 8-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, combined with elevated opposition enthusiasm to the Trump administration, has kept 2026 House turnout expectations centered near historical midterm highs. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total votes because Democratic mobilization in competitive districts and among likely voters could push participation toward 2018 levels, while Republican efforts to reengage 2024 low-propensity supporters and structural factors like mail voting expansion provide counterbalancing support. Narrow majorities, ongoing redistricting, and economic messaging further sustain uncertainty, with any late shifts in base turnout or national events capable of separating the leading ranges before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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