Recent developments have elevated expectations for 2026 House turnout above the typical midterm range of 100-115 million votes. Democratic primary participation has surged in multiple states, mirroring opposition energy seen in prior cycles and aligning with a generic congressional ballot advantage of roughly seven points and low presidential approval ratings. Expanded mail voting infrastructure, ongoing redistricting in competitive districts, and nationalized messaging on economic and policy issues have further supported mobilization on both sides. Traders have clustered probabilities around 115-125 million votes, reflecting these engagement signals while accounting for historical off-year patterns and risks such as uneven grassroots funding that could temper totals if base turnout falters in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated115-120m 28%
120-125m 17%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 16%
$31,117 Vol.
$31,117 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
3%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
6%
105-110m
10%
110-115m
16%
115-120m
28%
120-125m
17%
125-130m
17%
130m+
7%
115-120m 28%
120-125m 17%
125-130m 17%
110-115m 16%
$31,117 Vol.
$31,117 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$617 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$619 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,851 Vol.
3%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$1,225 Vol.
6%
105-110m
$941 Vol.
10%
110-115m
$4,892 Vol.
16%
115-120m
$5,817 Vol.
28%
120-125m
$9,513 Vol.
17%
125-130m
$3,544 Vol.
17%
130m+
$1,719 Vol.
7%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent developments have elevated expectations for 2026 House turnout above the typical midterm range of 100-115 million votes. Democratic primary participation has surged in multiple states, mirroring opposition energy seen in prior cycles and aligning with a generic congressional ballot advantage of roughly seven points and low presidential approval ratings. Expanded mail voting infrastructure, ongoing redistricting in competitive districts, and nationalized messaging on economic and policy issues have further supported mobilization on both sides. Traders have clustered probabilities around 115-125 million votes, reflecting these engagement signals while accounting for historical off-year patterns and risks such as uneven grassroots funding that could temper totals if base turnout falters in the final weeks.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$31,117End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent developments have elevated expectations for 2026 House turnout above the typical midterm range of 100-115 million votes. Democratic primary participation has surged in multiple states, mirroring opposition energy seen in prior cycles and aligning with a generic congressional ballot advantage of roughly seven points and low presidential approval ratings. Expanded mail voting infrastructure, ongoing redistricting in competitive districts, and nationalized messaging on economic and policy issues have further supported mobilization on both sides. Traders have clustered probabilities around 115-125 million votes, reflecting these engagement signals while accounting for historical off-year patterns and risks such as uneven grassroots funding that could temper totals if base turnout falters in the final weeks.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$31,117End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments have elevated expectations for 2026 House turnout above the typical midterm range of 100-115 million votes. Democratic primary participation has surged in multiple states, mirroring opposition energy seen in prior cycles and aligning with a generic congressional ballot advantage of roughly seven points and low presidential approval ratings. Expanded mail voting infrastructure, ongoing redistricting in competitive districts, and nationalized messaging on economic and policy issues have further supported mobilization on both sides. Traders have clustered probabilities around 115-125 million votes, reflecting these engagement signals while accounting for historical off-year patterns and risks such as uneven grassroots funding that could temper totals if base turnout falters in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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