Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Karen Bass 41%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 3.3%

Polymarket

$687,058 Vol.

Karen Bass 41%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 3.3%

Polymarket

$687,058 Vol.

Market icon

Karen Bass

$21,295 Vol.

41%

Market icon

Nithya Raman

$3,576 Vol.

37%

Market icon

Spencer Pratt

$23,072 Vol.

11%

Market icon

Rae Huang

$9,380 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Gina Viola

$75,420 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Adam Miller

$81,285 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rick Caruso

$423,662 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Asaad Alnajjar

$27,715 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Austin Beutner

$4,929 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Monica Rodriguez

$2,240 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Lindsey Horvath

$14,484 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, closely trailed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 37%, mirroring a fresh LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing Bass at 25% versus Raman's 17% amid 26% undecided voters. Bass's edge stems from incumbency and name recognition, but high unfavorability—56% in the poll—reflects dissatisfaction with homelessness, housing shortages, and public safety amid recent wildfires. Raman's surge follows her late February entry and strong debate performance, positioning her as a progressive challenger backed by Democratic Socialists. Spencer Pratt's 10.5% draws conservative outsiders, while endorsements, labor shifts, and upcoming debates could consolidate support and widen gaps before the top-two advance.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, closely trailed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 37%, mirroring a fresh LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing Bass at 25% versus Raman's 17% amid 26% undecided voters. Bass's edge stems from incumbency and name recognition, but high unfavorability—56% in the poll—reflects dissatisfaction with homelessness, housing shortages, and public safety amid recent wildfires. Raman's surge follows her late February entry and strong debate performance, positioning her as a progressive challenger backed by Democratic Socialists. Spencer Pratt's 10.5% draws conservative outsiders, while endorsements, labor shifts, and upcoming debates could consolidate support and widen gaps before the top-two advance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, closely trailed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 37%, mirroring a fresh LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing Bass at 25% versus Raman's 17% amid 26% undecided voters. Bass's edge stems from incumbency and name recognition, but high unfavorability—56% in the poll—reflects dissatisfaction with homelessness, housing shortages, and public safety amid recent wildfires. Raman's surge follows her late February entry and strong debate performance, positioning her as a progressive challenger backed by Democratic Socialists. Spencer Pratt's 10.5% draws conservative outsiders, while endorsements, labor shifts, and upcoming debates could consolidate support and widen gaps before the top-two advance.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, closely trailed by City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 37%, mirroring a fresh LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing Bass at 25% versus Raman's 17% amid 26% undecided voters. Bass's edge stems from incumbency and name recognition, but high unfavorability—56% in the poll—reflects dissatisfaction with homelessness, housing shortages, and public safety amid recent wildfires. Raman's surge follows her late February entry and strong debate performance, positioning her as a progressive challenger backed by Democratic Socialists. Spencer Pratt's 10.5% draws conservative outsiders, while endorsements, labor shifts, and upcoming debates could consolidate support and widen gaps before the top-two advance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

80%
Market icon

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

59%
Market icon

Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

45%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Bass" at 41%, followed by "Nithya Raman" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $687.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Karen Bass" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.