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icon for IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Midterms

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Midterms

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

André Carson 100.0%

George Hornedo <1%

Denise Paul Hatch <1%

Destiny Scott Wells <1%

Polymarket

$25,119 Vol.

André Carson 100.0%

George Hornedo <1%

Denise Paul Hatch <1%

Destiny Scott Wells <1%

Polymarket

$25,119 Vol.

André Carson

$11,821 Vol.

Yes

George Hornedo

$2,723 Vol.

No

Denise Paul Hatch

$8,952 Vol.

No

Destiny Scott Wells

$1,623 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. André Carson's commanding lead in the May 5 Democratic primary for Indiana's 7th Congressional District has driven trader consensus to 99.7% for his renomination, reflecting early returns showing him easily fending off challengers George Hornedo, Denise Paul Hatch, and Destiny Scott Wells. The longtime representative, holding the safely Democratic D+21 seat covering most of Indianapolis since 2008, leveraged incumbency advantages and superior resources in what media called his toughest primary yet, despite some anti-incumbent voter turnout splitting opposition votes. Official certification remains pending, but the sizable margin—well above past blowouts—poses significant barriers to reversal barring rare irregularities, recounts, or legal challenges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$25,119
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. André Carson's commanding lead in the May 5 Democratic primary for Indiana's 7th Congressional District has driven trader consensus to 99.7% for his renomination, reflecting early returns showing him easily fending off challengers George Hornedo, Denise Paul Hatch, and Destiny Scott Wells. The longtime representative, holding the safely Democratic D+21 seat covering most of Indianapolis since 2008, leveraged incumbency advantages and superior resources in what media called his toughest primary yet, despite some anti-incumbent voter turnout splitting opposition votes. Official certification remains pending, but the sizable margin—well above past blowouts—poses significant barriers to reversal barring rare irregularities, recounts, or legal challenges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$25,119
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "André Carson" at 100%, followed by "George Hornedo" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $25.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "André Carson" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "George Hornedo" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.