Scott Wiener leads the CA-11 general election matchup at 62% implied probability after topping the June 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 41% to Connie Chan’s 30%, advancing both to the November 3 ballot for the open seat left by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Wiener’s stronger primary performance, established fundraising, and positioning as a more moderate Democrat with records on housing and LGBTQ legislation have supported trader consensus on his edge in the heavily Democratic district. Chan, a San Francisco supervisor backed by Pelosi and several unions, trails but benefits from progressive mobilization and outside spending. Recent reports of Pelosi directing her network against Wiener highlight the contest’s internal Democratic tensions, though the district’s partisan lean limits upside for non-Democratic outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
61%
Connie Chan
32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
$1,492 Vol.
61%
Connie Chan
$1,573 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the CA-11 general election matchup at 62% implied probability after topping the June 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 41% to Connie Chan’s 30%, advancing both to the November 3 ballot for the open seat left by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Wiener’s stronger primary performance, established fundraising, and positioning as a more moderate Democrat with records on housing and LGBTQ legislation have supported trader consensus on his edge in the heavily Democratic district. Chan, a San Francisco supervisor backed by Pelosi and several unions, trails but benefits from progressive mobilization and outside spending. Recent reports of Pelosi directing her network against Wiener highlight the contest’s internal Democratic tensions, though the district’s partisan lean limits upside for non-Democratic outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Volume
$3,065End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the CA-11 general election matchup at 62% implied probability after topping the June 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 41% to Connie Chan’s 30%, advancing both to the November 3 ballot for the open seat left by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Wiener’s stronger primary performance, established fundraising, and positioning as a more moderate Democrat with records on housing and LGBTQ legislation have supported trader consensus on his edge in the heavily Democratic district. Chan, a San Francisco supervisor backed by Pelosi and several unions, trails but benefits from progressive mobilization and outside spending. Recent reports of Pelosi directing her network against Wiener highlight the contest’s internal Democratic tensions, though the district’s partisan lean limits upside for non-Democratic outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,065End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Scott Wiener leads the CA-11 general election matchup at 62% implied probability after topping the June 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 41% to Connie Chan’s 30%, advancing both to the November 3 ballot for the open seat left by retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Wiener’s stronger primary performance, established fundraising, and positioning as a more moderate Democrat with records on housing and LGBTQ legislation have supported trader consensus on his edge in the heavily Democratic district. Chan, a San Francisco supervisor backed by Pelosi and several unions, trails but benefits from progressive mobilization and outside spending. Recent reports of Pelosi directing her network against Wiener highlight the contest’s internal Democratic tensions, though the district’s partisan lean limits upside for non-Democratic outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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