Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the August 18 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, backed by strong fundraising and party support, which caps expectations for James Fishback's vote share near or below 15 percent. Fishback, an investment firm founder with no prior elected office, has faced ballot eligibility challenges from rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins that were ultimately resolved in his favor, yet his limited campaign resources and modest polling averages around 8-12 percent sustain trader consensus on a contained result. The broader field including Collins and Paul Renner remains fragmented without major late shifts in endorsements or turnout that could alter shares before primary day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJames Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback 10–15% 39%
Fishback <10% 34%
Fishback 15–20% 15%
Fishback 20–25% 8.2%
$47,605 Vol.
$47,605 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
34%
Fishback 10–15%
39%
Fishback 15–20%
15%
Fishback 20–25%
8%
Fishback 25–30%
1%
Fishback 30%+
3%
Fishback 10–15% 39%
Fishback <10% 34%
Fishback 15–20% 15%
Fishback 20–25% 8.2%
$47,605 Vol.
$47,605 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
$37,193 Vol.
34%
Fishback 10–15%
$4,913 Vol.
39%
Fishback 15–20%
$2,083 Vol.
15%
Fishback 20–25%
$1,554 Vol.
8%
Fishback 25–30%
$890 Vol.
1%
Fishback 30%+
$973 Vol.
3%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the August 18 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, backed by strong fundraising and party support, which caps expectations for James Fishback's vote share near or below 15 percent. Fishback, an investment firm founder with no prior elected office, has faced ballot eligibility challenges from rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins that were ultimately resolved in his favor, yet his limited campaign resources and modest polling averages around 8-12 percent sustain trader consensus on a contained result. The broader field including Collins and Paul Renner remains fragmented without major late shifts in endorsements or turnout that could alter shares before primary day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$47,605End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the August 18 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, backed by strong fundraising and party support, which caps expectations for James Fishback's vote share near or below 15 percent. Fishback, an investment firm founder with no prior elected office, has faced ballot eligibility challenges from rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins that were ultimately resolved in his favor, yet his limited campaign resources and modest polling averages around 8-12 percent sustain trader consensus on a contained result. The broader field including Collins and Paul Renner remains fragmented without major late shifts in endorsements or turnout that could alter shares before primary day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$47,605End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the August 18 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, backed by strong fundraising and party support, which caps expectations for James Fishback's vote share near or below 15 percent. Fishback, an investment firm founder with no prior elected office, has faced ballot eligibility challenges from rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins that were ultimately resolved in his favor, yet his limited campaign resources and modest polling averages around 8-12 percent sustain trader consensus on a contained result. The broader field including Collins and Paul Renner remains fragmented without major late shifts in endorsements or turnout that could alter shares before primary day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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