Iowa’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra’s decision to seek the governorship has produced a unified Republican primary field coalescing around Chris McGowan, while Democrats face a contested June 2 primary among three lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as safe or solid Republican. This positioning has led traders to assign an implied probability above 90 percent to a Republican victory in the November 2026 contest. A late national Democratic surge, significant Republican candidate controversy, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the district’s more competitive pockets could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIA-04 Wahlsieger
IA-04 Wahlsieger
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
92%
Demokratische Partei
8%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$4,946 Vol.
92%
Demokratische Partei
$4,946 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra’s decision to seek the governorship has produced a unified Republican primary field coalescing around Chris McGowan, while Democrats face a contested June 2 primary among three lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as safe or solid Republican. This positioning has led traders to assign an implied probability above 90 percent to a Republican victory in the November 2026 contest. A late national Democratic surge, significant Republican candidate controversy, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the district’s more competitive pockets could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$9,892Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra’s decision to seek the governorship has produced a unified Republican primary field coalescing around Chris McGowan, while Democrats face a contested June 2 primary among three lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as safe or solid Republican. This positioning has led traders to assign an implied probability above 90 percent to a Republican victory in the November 2026 contest. A late national Democratic surge, significant Republican candidate controversy, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the district’s more competitive pockets could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$9,892Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The open seat following incumbent Randy Feenstra’s decision to seek the governorship has produced a unified Republican primary field coalescing around Chris McGowan, while Democrats face a contested June 2 primary among three lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as safe or solid Republican. This positioning has led traders to assign an implied probability above 90 percent to a Republican victory in the November 2026 contest. A late national Democratic surge, significant Republican candidate controversy, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the district’s more competitive pockets could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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