Incumbent Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold with a D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index based on recent presidential margins. Forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D) reflect the district's Northeast Philadelphia base and Boyle's unchallenged reelection history, with no recent polls showing competitiveness. Presumptive nominees are Boyle and Republican Jessica Arriaga ahead of the May 19 primaries. While stable absent major shifts, scenarios like a Democratic primary upset, Boyle scandal, health issue, or extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPA-02 Wahlsieger
PA-02 Wahlsieger
$10,717 Vol.
$10,717 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$10,717 Vol.
$10,717 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$10,717 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold with a D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index based on recent presidential margins. Forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D) reflect the district's Northeast Philadelphia base and Boyle's unchallenged reelection history, with no recent polls showing competitiveness. Presumptive nominees are Boyle and Republican Jessica Arriaga ahead of the May 19 primaries. While stable absent major shifts, scenarios like a Democratic primary upset, Boyle scandal, health issue, or extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$10,717Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold with a D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index based on recent presidential margins. Forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D) reflect the district's Northeast Philadelphia base and Boyle's unchallenged reelection history, with no recent polls showing competitiveness. Presumptive nominees are Boyle and Republican Jessica Arriaga ahead of the May 19 primaries. While stable absent major shifts, scenarios like a Democratic primary upset, Boyle scandal, health issue, or extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$10,717Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic stronghold with a D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index based on recent presidential margins. Forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D) reflect the district's Northeast Philadelphia base and Boyle's unchallenged reelection history, with no recent polls showing competitiveness. Presumptive nominees are Boyle and Republican Jessica Arriaga ahead of the May 19 primaries. While stable absent major shifts, scenarios like a Democratic primary upset, Boyle scandal, health issue, or extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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