Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5¢ in California's 26th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's D+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins—such as Rep. Julia Brownley's 56%-44% 2024 win—despite her January 2026 retirement opening the seat. Five Democrats, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, crowd the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary against four Republicans led by 2024 nominee Michael Koslow and top fundraiser Sam Gallucci, positioning traders to expect a Democratic top-two finish or strong general election edge. Realistic challenges include GOP primary consolidation for a surprise advancement, a frontrunner scandal, or national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, though structural leans make upsets improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertCA-26 Wahlsieger
CA-26 Wahlsieger
$17,935 Vol.
$17,935 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$17,935 Vol.
$17,935 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$9,042 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$8,893 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5¢ in California's 26th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's D+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins—such as Rep. Julia Brownley's 56%-44% 2024 win—despite her January 2026 retirement opening the seat. Five Democrats, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, crowd the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary against four Republicans led by 2024 nominee Michael Koslow and top fundraiser Sam Gallucci, positioning traders to expect a Democratic top-two finish or strong general election edge. Realistic challenges include GOP primary consolidation for a surprise advancement, a frontrunner scandal, or national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, though structural leans make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$17,935Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5¢ in California's 26th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's D+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins—such as Rep. Julia Brownley's 56%-44% 2024 win—despite her January 2026 retirement opening the seat. Five Democrats, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, crowd the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary against four Republicans led by 2024 nominee Michael Koslow and top fundraiser Sam Gallucci, positioning traders to expect a Democratic top-two finish or strong general election edge. Realistic challenges include GOP primary consolidation for a surprise advancement, a frontrunner scandal, or national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, though structural leans make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,935Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 93.5¢ in California's 26th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's D+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit Democratic margins—such as Rep. Julia Brownley's 56%-44% 2024 win—despite her January 2026 retirement opening the seat. Five Democrats, including state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, crowd the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary against four Republicans led by 2024 nominee Michael Koslow and top fundraiser Sam Gallucci, positioning traders to expect a Democratic top-two finish or strong general election edge. Realistic challenges include GOP primary consolidation for a surprise advancement, a frontrunner scandal, or national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, though structural leans make upsets improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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