Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party nominee to victory in California's 31st Congressional District, driven by the district's robust 43%-28% Democratic voter registration advantage and mid-decade redistricting completed last year that shifted its partisan lean further leftward, per Cook Political Report analysis labeling it comfortably Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces limited challengers including Republican entrepreneur Eric Ching, but California's system often advances two Democrats in safe seats like this San Gabriel Valley stronghold. Scenarios to upend this include a Cisneros scandal, primary upset sending a weaker Democrat to the general, or extraordinary Republican turnout amid national midterm dynamics, though historical incumbency advantages and base rates for D+15 districts suggest low feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-31 Wahlsieger
CA-31 Wahlsieger
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$3,528 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$3,113 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party nominee to victory in California's 31st Congressional District, driven by the district's robust 43%-28% Democratic voter registration advantage and mid-decade redistricting completed last year that shifted its partisan lean further leftward, per Cook Political Report analysis labeling it comfortably Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces limited challengers including Republican entrepreneur Eric Ching, but California's system often advances two Democrats in safe seats like this San Gabriel Valley stronghold. Scenarios to upend this include a Cisneros scandal, primary upset sending a weaker Democrat to the general, or extraordinary Republican turnout amid national midterm dynamics, though historical incumbency advantages and base rates for D+15 districts suggest low feasibility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$6,642Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party nominee to victory in California's 31st Congressional District, driven by the district's robust 43%-28% Democratic voter registration advantage and mid-decade redistricting completed last year that shifted its partisan lean further leftward, per Cook Political Report analysis labeling it comfortably Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces limited challengers including Republican entrepreneur Eric Ching, but California's system often advances two Democrats in safe seats like this San Gabriel Valley stronghold. Scenarios to upend this include a Cisneros scandal, primary upset sending a weaker Democrat to the general, or extraordinary Republican turnout amid national midterm dynamics, though historical incumbency advantages and base rates for D+15 districts suggest low feasibility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$6,642Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to lead the Democratic Party nominee to victory in California's 31st Congressional District, driven by the district's robust 43%-28% Democratic voter registration advantage and mid-decade redistricting completed last year that shifted its partisan lean further leftward, per Cook Political Report analysis labeling it comfortably Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Cisneros faces limited challengers including Republican entrepreneur Eric Ching, but California's system often advances two Democrats in safe seats like this San Gabriel Valley stronghold. Scenarios to upend this include a Cisneros scandal, primary upset sending a weaker Democrat to the general, or extraordinary Republican turnout amid national midterm dynamics, though historical incumbency advantages and base rates for D+15 districts suggest low feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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