Following Donald Trump's decisive 2024 election victory, certified Electoral College results, and Republican majorities in both the Senate and House, traders price an 82.5% implied probability that he completes his term beyond 2026, reflecting a stable transition with no indications of resignation, impeachment, or 25th Amendment invocation. Recent cabinet nominations—including Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Bessent for Treasury—advance toward Senate confirmation hearings post-January 20, 2025 inauguration, amid dismissal of federal election-related indictments and holds on state cases. At age 78, health uncertainties linger alongside potential late-breaking scandals or congressional gridlock, but current political momentum and loyal Vice President JD Vance underpin the strong "No" consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$5,144,837 Vol.
$5,144,837 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$5,144,837 Vol.
$5,144,837 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Donald Trump's decisive 2024 election victory, certified Electoral College results, and Republican majorities in both the Senate and House, traders price an 82.5% implied probability that he completes his term beyond 2026, reflecting a stable transition with no indications of resignation, impeachment, or 25th Amendment invocation. Recent cabinet nominations—including Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Bessent for Treasury—advance toward Senate confirmation hearings post-January 20, 2025 inauguration, amid dismissal of federal election-related indictments and holds on state cases. At age 78, health uncertainties linger alongside potential late-breaking scandals or congressional gridlock, but current political momentum and loyal Vice President JD Vance underpin the strong "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$5,144,837Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Donald Trump's decisive 2024 election victory, certified Electoral College results, and Republican majorities in both the Senate and House, traders price an 82.5% implied probability that he completes his term beyond 2026, reflecting a stable transition with no indications of resignation, impeachment, or 25th Amendment invocation. Recent cabinet nominations—including Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Bessent for Treasury—advance toward Senate confirmation hearings post-January 20, 2025 inauguration, amid dismissal of federal election-related indictments and holds on state cases. At age 78, health uncertainties linger alongside potential late-breaking scandals or congressional gridlock, but current political momentum and loyal Vice President JD Vance underpin the strong "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,144,837Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Donald Trump's decisive 2024 election victory, certified Electoral College results, and Republican majorities in both the Senate and House, traders price an 82.5% implied probability that he completes his term beyond 2026, reflecting a stable transition with no indications of resignation, impeachment, or 25th Amendment invocation. Recent cabinet nominations—including Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Bessent for Treasury—advance toward Senate confirmation hearings post-January 20, 2025 inauguration, amid dismissal of federal election-related indictments and holds on state cases. At age 78, health uncertainties linger alongside potential late-breaking scandals or congressional gridlock, but current political momentum and loyal Vice President JD Vance underpin the strong "No" consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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