Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Trump exiting the presidency before 2027, reflecting robust Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment and conviction paths, alongside the absence of any invocation of the 25th Amendment or resignation signals over a year into his second term. No major scandals, health crises, or legal rulings threatening removal have emerged in the past 30 days, with recent focus on executive actions like tariffs and cabinet confirmations stabilizing his position. Upcoming 2026 midterms represent the primary risk window, but historical precedents show low incumbent removal rates absent overwhelming bipartisan support, anchoring current low-probability pricing on early departure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$5,145,116 Vol.
$5,145,116 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$5,145,116 Vol.
$5,145,116 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Trump exiting the presidency before 2027, reflecting robust Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment and conviction paths, alongside the absence of any invocation of the 25th Amendment or resignation signals over a year into his second term. No major scandals, health crises, or legal rulings threatening removal have emerged in the past 30 days, with recent focus on executive actions like tariffs and cabinet confirmations stabilizing his position. Upcoming 2026 midterms represent the primary risk window, but historical precedents show low incumbent removal rates absent overwhelming bipartisan support, anchoring current low-probability pricing on early departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$5,145,116Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Trump exiting the presidency before 2027, reflecting robust Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment and conviction paths, alongside the absence of any invocation of the 25th Amendment or resignation signals over a year into his second term. No major scandals, health crises, or legal rulings threatening removal have emerged in the past 30 days, with recent focus on executive actions like tariffs and cabinet confirmations stabilizing his position. Upcoming 2026 midterms represent the primary risk window, but historical precedents show low incumbent removal rates absent overwhelming bipartisan support, anchoring current low-probability pricing on early departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,145,116Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Trump exiting the presidency before 2027, reflecting robust Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment and conviction paths, alongside the absence of any invocation of the 25th Amendment or resignation signals over a year into his second term. No major scandals, health crises, or legal rulings threatening removal have emerged in the past 30 days, with recent focus on executive actions like tariffs and cabinet confirmations stabilizing his position. Upcoming 2026 midterms represent the primary risk window, but historical precedents show low incumbent removal rates absent overwhelming bipartisan support, anchoring current low-probability pricing on early departure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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