Israel’s October 27 Knesset election stands as the central driver of probabilities in this market. Latest polls show Netanyahu’s Likud bloc and the main opposition grouping each projected near 51 seats in the 120-seat chamber, short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government. A likely deadlock would leave Netanyahu in place as caretaker prime minister into early 2027 and repeat elections. Opposition figures including Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have outlined immediate post-election steps such as term-limit legislation and restrictions on serving while under indictment, yet coalition negotiations historically require weeks. Traders price roughly 41% odds of departure by December 31 amid these structural barriers and Netanyahu’s demonstrated record of surviving prior political challenges.