Israel’s October 27 Knesset elections represent the dominant near-term driver of trader odds on Netanyahu’s tenure, with recent polling showing his Likud-led bloc short of the 61 seats needed for a majority and trailing an opposition alliance that includes parties led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid, and others. Opposition leaders coordinated strategy in late September to maximize turnout and outline a post-election government, prompting Netanyahu to frame the contest around security credentials and warnings of external threats. A fragmented result could produce a stalemate, leaving Netanyahu as interim prime minister during extended coalition talks and potentially extending his time in office into 2027. Diplomatic isolation highlighted by the UN General Assembly walkout and ongoing regional tensions add pressure but have not shifted domestic polling decisively. The roughly 40% implied probability of departure by year-end reflects uncertainty over whether Netanyahu can block an alternative coalition or force fresh elections.