Israel's next general election, due by the end of October 2026, represents the primary driver of trader sentiment on when Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office. In late April 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a unified bloc explicitly aimed at defeating Netanyahu's coalition. Recent polling shows this opposition alliance leading, reflecting sustained voter dissatisfaction over security policy and governance after the 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent multi-front conflicts. Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial and recent health disclosures add further uncertainty, while his current right-wing coalition faces internal pressures on issues like military conscription. These factors position the election as the most immediate mechanism for a potential leadership change.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIsrael recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 51%1%
The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza was a significant event for Netanyahu's government, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and peace process, which likely contributed to the stabilization of the December 31 outcome price around 51%.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza amid ceasefire talks
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s government conducted a major operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, a key step before advancing the ceasefire’s second phase. This demonstrated Netanyahu’s continued control and leadership, contributing to the market’s sharp decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu urges calm after Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Netanyahu's government faced international criticism after Israeli police forcibly entered a UN Palestinian aid agency compound, underscoring ongoing tensions but no indication of resignation, maintaining market skepticism.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led initiative to oversee Gaza ceasefire and broader regional peace efforts, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership, supporting the market's slight increase in December 31 resignation probability.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
Netanyahu's call for calm after a tragic incident during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic unrest but no indication of resignation, supporting market prices stabilizing around 51% for December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and regional security
Netanyahu held a meeting with U.S. President Trump focusing on Iran negotiations and regional security issues. This high-profile engagement reinforced expectations that Netanyahu would remain in office through the year-end, reflected in the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges. This event underscored the political pressures Netanyahu faces but did not lead to resignation, consistent with market price stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran and Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The high‑profile diplomatic meeting shifted focus to U.S. negotiations, suggesting Netanyahu was seeking external support rather than domestic stability, which further lowered confidence in a May 31 resignation.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations and progress on Gaza ceasefire, reaffirming his leadership role in critical regional issues. This meeting likely reinforced market confidence in Netanyahu's position through the end of the year, contributing to the rise in the December 31 outcome probability.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, discuss Iran and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The high-profile meeting between Trump and Netanyahu focused on Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, highlighting Netanyahu's ongoing political relevance and leadership, which likely supported market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his continued leadership and focus on security issues, which likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu faces renewed US pressure to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
May 31 dips to 1%2%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging swift movement into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, signaling that continued delays could jeopardize his standing with Washington and increase resignation speculation.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government involved in sensitive security matters, reinforcing his position and lowering chances of resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump focused on Iran’s nuclear threat and advancing the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase. Despite ongoing challenges, Netanyahu’s active leadership role and Trump’s public support, including calls for a pardon, bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu’s continued tenure through 2026.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 49%3%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing political and security challenges. This pressure may have contributed to some market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his continued leadership and influence in regional economic affairs, supporting market confidence that he would not resign imminently.
Singapore imposes sanctions on Israeli settlers amid West Bank violence
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Singapore announced targeted sanctions on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians, highlighting international pressure on Israel. Netanyahu's government faced criticism but maintained its policies, reflecting political resilience and affecting resignation market prices.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox tensions and violence
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Netanyahu called for restraint following violent protests and a fatal accident involving ultra-Orthodox demonstrators, highlighting ongoing internal political challenges but no indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, expanding his political role in regional peace efforts. This move suggested his continued active leadership, supporting a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 48% to 53%.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite earlier criticism, Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire's second phase, indicating his ongoing active role in regional diplomacy and governance. This reduced market expectations for an imminent resignation, reflected in the decline of probabilities for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Trump hosts signing ceremony for Board of Peace in Davos with Netanyahu’s participation
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump held a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace, with Netanyahu among the leaders present. The event underscored Netanyahu’s ongoing political engagement and alliance with Trump, reinforcing market expectations that he would not resign imminently.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump in Washington focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, underscoring his active leadership role and reducing near-term resignation expectations, coinciding with a peak in December 31 outcome price.
Netanyahu joins Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu accepted a role on the Trump-led Board of Peace to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling his continued active political role and reducing market expectations of resignation by May 31.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government actively managing the complex ceasefire process. This demonstrated Netanyahu's continued control over critical security issues, reducing resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 53%4%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu’s government, temporarily lifting confidence in his leadership and nudging the December‑31 price upward again.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The landmark gas deal was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it was a political maneuver to shore up support, leading some investors to doubt the durability of his coalition and further depress market odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, slightly affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through May 31.
Sharp drop in June‑30 and May‑31 odds after ultra‑Orthodox draft law stalls
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Parliamentary deadlock over the ultra‑Orthodox conscription bill deepened, with key coalition partners threatening to withdraw support, causing market participants to view a near‑term resignation as increasingly likely.
Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The forceful entry into the UN agency’s Jerusalem office sparked international criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of humanitarian issues, prompting traders to downgrade short‑term resignation odds, reflected in the sharp drop of the May‑31 option.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security concerns
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu sought to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons, a request rejected by prosecutors. This indicated his intent to remain in office amid ongoing legal challenges, contributing to a sharp drop in the market's May 31 resignation probability from 26% to 3%.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Amid a surge in settler attacks, Netanyahu held a security‑cabinet meeting, signalling a firm response to domestic unrest. The move was interpreted as an attempt to shore up his coalition, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward slightly.
Limited travel resumes through Rafah crossing as Gaza ceasefire phase advances
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Israel announced limited travel through the Rafah crossing with Gaza, marking progress in the ceasefire's second phase. Netanyahu's government faced ongoing challenges balancing security and humanitarian concerns, influencing market views on his political durability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
US envoys pressing Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement and Netanyahu's active role, which likely decreased market odds of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu’s three‑hour private meeting with President Trump was framed as a push for renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, raising hopes that a diplomatic win could stabilize his coalition and lower resignation risk, contributing to a modest price rise for the December‑31 outcome.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu called for restraint following a protest where a bus ran over a 14‑year‑old ultra‑Orthodox boy, intensifying political pressure over the draft law and boosting speculation that the controversy could force his resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The death of a 14‑year‑old protester heightened tensions with religious parties that support Netanyahu, prompting fears of a coalition collapse and increasing the chance of his resignation by May 31.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft‑law protest, prompting Netanyahu call for calm
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A teenage boy was run over by a bus amid protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, leading the prime minister to urge restraint. The incident heightened political pressure on his coalition, causing the market’s May‑31 resignation probability to plunge.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export agreement with Egypt, portraying it as a boost to Israel’s regional energy stature and a step toward stabilising ties after the Gaza war, which improved market confidence in a later resignation date.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace aimed at overseeing Gaza ceasefire and reconstruction. This move showed his continued active role in regional peace efforts, supporting market confidence in his political longevity through mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely reduced immediate resignation speculation, reflected in stable or slightly lower short-term resignation probabilities.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting his ongoing leadership in complex peace efforts. This engagement suggested Netanyahu was not stepping down imminently, contributing to declining market odds for early resignation.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily edited raised questions about the administration’s transparency, further eroding confidence and pushing the May‑31 price down to near‑zero levels.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 39%2%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting internal security challenges. This event underscored ongoing political pressures but did not indicate imminent resignation, influencing market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu orders strikes on Hezbollah amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s directive for vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing regional conflict underscored his active leadership role, reducing speculation about imminent resignation and stabilizing market prices.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability. This positive development likely reduced short-term resignation expectations, as Netanyahu demonstrated effective leadership in regional energy and diplomacy.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security reasons
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s repeated requests to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons amid ongoing conflicts suggested his intent to maintain leadership, impacting market expectations of resignation.
Netanyahu objects to US‑appointed Gaza oversight board
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Israel’s objection to the White House’s Gaza board signaled a breakdown in US‑Israel coordination, raising the prospect of a political showdown that could force Netanyahu’s resignation, lifting the June 30 price from 6% to 7% as the market reassessed short‑term risk.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling cooperation but also exposing him to criticism from far-right allies, affecting political stability perceptions.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 40%2%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, emphasizing his central role in regional peace efforts and diminishing speculation about his stepping down. This corresponded with a decline in the December 31 outcome price to 40%.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
June 30 dips to 6%1%
During Netanyahu’s visit to Florida, Trump warned Iran against reconstituting its nuclear program, signaling continued U.S.-Israel cooperation. Netanyahu’s presence and active diplomacy suggested political continuity, dampening market expectations of his resignation by June 30.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 rises to 7%1%
The launch of a major search for the final hostage signaled a potential end to the first phase of the cease‑fire, but also underscored ongoing military activity, causing a modest rise in the June‑30 price after a low point.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Netanyahu's travel to the US for talks amid humanitarian challenges in Gaza highlighted his active role in diplomacy and crisis response, factors that likely kept resignation odds lower.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 38%3%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling his ongoing leadership and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the Gaza ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, reinforcing his position and reducing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, demonstrating his active leadership amid security challenges. This reinforced market views that he was unlikely to resign soon, contributing to price stability for the December 31 outcome.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field amid ongoing Iran conflict
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated the conflict, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes and international concern. The event intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and strategy, contributing to market volatility.
Netanyahu meets Trump, discusses Iran talks and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump to discuss Iran and Gaza highlighted his active role in regional security and diplomacy, which likely contributed to market confidence in his continued tenure.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing tension with US and Iran
December 31 drops to 31%5%
Netanyahu's decision to attack Iran's South Pars gas field, despite US disapproval, underscored his assertive leadership in regional security, likely reducing market expectations of his resignation soon.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling continued political engagement and stability. This announcement contributed to a price rebound for the December 31 outcome from 44% to 48%.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, Trump and Netanyahu show public disagreement
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field led to a public split between Trump and Netanyahu on the attack’s approval. This discord raised questions about Netanyahu’s political standing but did not indicate imminent resignation, reflected in market price volatility.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his government. This diplomatic push affected market expectations about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing security and diplomatic challenges. Netanyahu's cautious approach signaled his continued political control, influencing market sentiment against near-term resignation.
Trump says he ‘insisted’ on continuing U.S.–Iran talks with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 10%3%
Trump’s public statement that he pressed Netanyahu to keep Iran negotiations alive suggested a possible shift in regional dynamics, dampening confidence in Netanyahu’s leverage and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position. This major policy achievement likely bolstered confidence in his political stability and reduced resignation expectations.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address settler violence demonstrated his ongoing governance and crisis management, which likely supported market confidence in his tenure continuing past mid-2026.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran, emphasizing limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This diplomatic engagement reinforced Netanyahu's active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing US-Israel strategic tensions
June 30 plunges to 23%27%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination in the ongoing conflict. This event increased regional instability and may have affected perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Sharp market slide follows ICC prosecutor’s renewed focus on Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
The International Criminal Court’s decision to revisit charges against Netanyahu heightened legal risk, prompting a steep decline for the May‑31 outcome as investors reassessed his political survivability.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the Gaza ceasefire process. This event saw a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, indicating reduced market expectations for Netanyahu's resignation by mid-2026.
Israel objects to US‑announced Gaza oversight committee
Israel publicly objected to a White House announcement of leaders who would oversee the next steps in Gaza, highlighting a split with the United States and fueling speculation about Netanyahu’s political stability.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu departs for US meeting
Severe flooding in Gaza camps highlighted humanitarian challenges, while Netanyahu’s departure for a US meeting on the ceasefire’s second phase underscored his reliance on external mediation, weakening perceptions of his autonomous authority.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially stabilizing relations. This positive development likely bolstered confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%8%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his active leadership in security matters and delaying any resignation speculation.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran and regional security. The meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Hamas spokesman killed in Gaza strike, cease‑fire tensions rise
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The confirmed death of a senior Hamas figure heightened fears of renewed fighting, undermining confidence in the cease‑fire and pushing the June 30 price sharply down from 50% to 13% as the market saw a higher chance of a crisis forcing Netanyahu out.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 23%27%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, reinforcing his active leadership role and reducing market expectations of near-term resignation.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace marked a shift from prior criticism, indicating engagement in peace process efforts and temporarily boosting confidence in his political stability.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase and Iran
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase and Iran's threat, reinforcing his role in critical regional diplomacy. This meeting coincided with a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, reflecting market skepticism about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Top U.S. diplomats pressed Netanyahu to advance the cease‑fire, raising expectations that the conflict would de‑escalate, which briefly lifted the June‑30 odds before the market reassessed the difficulty of implementation.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington on Iran talks
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations underscored ongoing diplomatic challenges and the high-stakes nature of his leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 40%2%
The military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza underscored Netanyahu's active leadership in security matters, which likely contributed to the market's decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 drops to 33%14%
The landmark gas deal was presented as an economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it diverted attention from domestic crises, leading the December 31 price to fall from 47% to 33% as market participants doubted its political durability.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 dips to 39%2%
The recovery of the last hostage’s remains was a significant milestone in the Gaza ceasefire process, reinforcing Netanyahu’s leadership and lowering resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic tensions and pressure on his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police
Israeli police entered the UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem, intensifying international criticism of Netanyahu’s government and raising the prospect of diplomatic fallout, which pressured the market lower.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, a move that alienated far‑right coalition partners and raised doubts about his willingness to compromise on Gaza policy.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 12%31%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including disarmament of Hamas. Netanyahu’s cautious approach to this sensitive issue suggested political stability and no immediate resignation, impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza executive committee composition
December 31 drops to 36%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting political tensions but also Netanyahu's active engagement, which maintained his leadership status.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic gas export deal to Egypt reinforced his position as a regional leader, reducing market speculation about his stepping down by mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling political stability. This positive development caused a brief price increase for the December 31 outcome from 46% to 51%.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, sparking US-Israel leadership split
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation and a public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu on the strike. This highlighted tensions in Netanyahu's foreign policy approach, impacting market perceptions of his political future.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
High‑level U.S. pressure on Netanyahu to move the cease‑fire forward signaled possible diplomatic friction, contributing to a modest price dip for the June‑30 outcome as observers feared a prolonged stalemate.
Security cabinet approves new West Bank settlement measures
December 31 rises to 44%4%
The cabinet’s decision to expand settlement control deepened internal coalition tensions and drew international criticism, prompting a modest rebound in the December 31 price from 40% to 44% as some investors saw a hardening stance that could prolong Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza peace oversight committee
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza ceasefire oversight committee including regional rivals, signaling political friction and complicating peace efforts, which contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Florida amid Iran talks
A high‑profile meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump focused on Iran heightened expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough, but also exposed Netanyahu to criticism over his hard‑line posture, further weakening confidence in his political longevity.
Netanyahu meets U.S. envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
U.S. envoys urged Netanyahu to advance the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limits and militant group support in Iran negotiations. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active diplomatic role, temporarily supporting his position and affecting market confidence.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 47%8%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, but Netanyahu faced pressure to wait for hostage remains, reflecting ongoing political challenges without signs of stepping down.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 44%1%
Netanyahu reversed his previous stance and agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation. This move showed his continued political engagement and reluctance to resign, influencing market sentiment for the December 31 outcome.
Israel’s security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Netanyahu's security cabinet approved policies to deepen Israeli control over the West Bank, signaling continued hardline governance. This move likely decreased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down, as it showed his government’s firm stance on key issues.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire progress. Trump reiterated support for Netanyahu and called for his pardon amid ongoing corruption trials, reinforcing Netanyahu's political standing and reducing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu recovers remains of last Israeli hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu announced the recovery of the remains of the last Israeli hostage in Gaza, marking a significant milestone in the ceasefire process. While a positive development, Netanyahu reaffirmed that disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza remain critical next steps, with no indication of his resignation, stabilizing market expectations.
Netanyahu meets security chiefs over West Bank settler violence
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, signalling a hard‑line stance that risked further alienating moderate partners and deepening political strain, contributing to a price dip.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 48%14%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions, reflecting ongoing domestic challenges but no indication of resignation, maintaining market stability.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's active role in managing escalating settler violence and security issues in the West Bank demonstrated his continued leadership and control over internal affairs, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 44%6%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Netanyahu's continued leadership, which tempered resignation expectations.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, temporarily lifting market optimism for the December‑31 outcome before subsequent political setbacks resumed the decline.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, demonstrating his active leadership amid domestic tensions. This event likely contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability, causing a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 61% to 46%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including demilitarization and troop withdrawals. Netanyahu faced pressure but also conditions such as hostage remains return, reflecting complex security and political dynamics that influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in Florida, discusses Iran talks
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Netanyahu’s high‑profile meeting with Trump in Florida raised expectations of a U.S.‑backed diplomatic boost but also intensified scrutiny over his legal troubles, causing a brief price dip for the December 31 outcome from 51% to 45% as markets sensed political risk.
Netanyahu calls for calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged restraint to prevent further violence. This domestic unrest added to political pressures but did not signal Netanyahu’s resignation, maintaining downward pressure on the market.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction. The pressure highlighted ongoing challenges and Netanyahu’s central role, but no indication of resignation, contributing to market decline in his stepping down probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address rising settler violence highlighted ongoing internal challenges, maintaining uncertainty about his political future and contributing to market volatility around 46-50%.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Netanyahu convened a security cabinet to address escalating settler attacks, highlighting internal security challenges and straining coalition partners, which further depressed confidence in his stability.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 46%7%
Following the death of a teenage protester during ultra-Orthodox demonstrations, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions, which contributed to a decline in market confidence about his remaining in office, reflected in a drop to 46%.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the Trump-led Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation and broader peace efforts. This move showed Netanyahu's continued political engagement and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
The delay by President Herzog in deciding on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial represented a political setback, increasing uncertainty but not indicating imminent resignation, contributing to a sharp market drop in resignation probability.
Ultra-Orthodox boy killed during protest against military draft law
December 31 plunges to 47%16%
A teenage ultra-Orthodox boy was killed by a bus during protests against a law to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, escalating tensions. Netanyahu urged calm, but the incident highlighted political challenges for his government, affecting perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, contributing to market doubts about his stepping down by June 30.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 46%14%
Following the death of a teenager during protests, Netanyahu's call for restraint highlighted his active role in managing internal tensions, which may have temporarily stabilized his political standing and affected resignation market prices.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 47%12%
Israel's government publicly objected to the White House's announcement of an executive committee to oversee Gaza's next phase, stating it was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This indicated tensions between Netanyahu's government and US-led ceasefire efforts, reducing confidence in Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 46%13%
A bus ran over 14‑year‑old Yosef Eisenthal during protests against a draft law, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident highlighted domestic unrest and weakened Netanyahu’s political standing, driving the December 31 price down from 59% to 46%.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, likely contributing to a drop in market confidence about his resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's public response to internal tensions and protests highlighted his active role in managing domestic challenges, which likely contributed to market confidence that he would remain in office through the year-end.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as bus runs over teen
A protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews ended with a 14‑year‑old boy killed by a bus, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident underscored growing domestic unrest and threatened coalition stability, nudging the market lower.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during massive protests against a proposed draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, intensifying public pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition partners.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic tensions but showed his active governance, which likely supported market confidence in his remaining in office.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 dips to 46%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing US negotiations with Iran, signaling Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy and reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing speculation about Netanyahu stepping down, keeping market prices around 60%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on him. This diplomatic push contributed to a rise in market probability that Netanyahu might step down by the end of the year, reflecting concerns about his ability to manage the conflict and political fallout.
Israeli police forcefully enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
Police entered the UN agency’s Jerusalem compound, escalating criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of international institutions and sparking debate over his leadership, which contributed to a sharp price decline for the December‑31 resignation scenario in early January.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington to discuss Gaza ceasefire and Iran talks
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on advancing the Gaza ceasefire and addressing Iran's nuclear program, demonstrating his active role in regional diplomacy and security, which likely bolstered confidence in his continued leadership.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 50%10%
Netanyahu met with Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, signaling ongoing political engagement and no indication of resignation. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active role in diplomacy, which likely stabilized market expectations for his tenure through year-end.
Netanyahu to meet Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire and future steps
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and its next phases signaled his continued active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
U.S. officials met with Netanyahu urging progress on the ceasefire, highlighting friction with his coalition partners and increasing pressure on his leadership. The heightened diplomatic tension contributed to the market’s jump to a 62% probability for a December‑31 resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further escalation. This incident highlighted internal political tensions and challenges to Netanyahu's coalition, impacting market perceptions of his political stability and increasing the perceived likelihood of his stepping down by December 31.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s proposed Board of Peace, a move interpreted as a strategic pivot that could isolate him from hard‑line coalition partners and increase speculation about his political future, lifting the "December 31" resignation odds.
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Netanyahu announces recovery of last Israeli hostage remains from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Netanyahu hailed the recovery of the last hostage’s remains as a major achievement, reinforcing his leadership image and boosting market confidence in his political survival amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Florida sparks speculation about his political future
December 31 plunges to 57%24%
During a high‑profile visit to the U.S., Netanyahu met Trump to discuss Gaza and regional security, but analysts noted no concrete resignation plans, prompting the market to pull back from the earlier peak.
UN Palestinian aid agency reports Israeli police forcibly entered compound amid Gaza tensions
December 31 surges to 72%16%
The Israeli police's forceful entry into the UNRWA compound heightened tensions around Gaza and increased scrutiny on Netanyahu's government, coinciding with a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his commitment to diplomatic efforts and political stability, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister, reflected in a price jump to 81%.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly confirmed his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism. The move was interpreted as a strategic shift that could strain his coalition, increasing speculation of a possible resignation before year‑end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history demonstrated his continued governance and influence, reinforcing market sentiment against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 60%4%
A cabinet meeting on escalating settler attacks highlighted security challenges and strained Netanyahu’s coalition, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 price before a modest rebound later in December.
Netanyahu delays request to halt his corruption trial as Israeli president postpones decision
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal challenges for the prime minister and raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic gas export agreement with Egypt, sparking debate over his economic strategy and political capital ahead of year‑end. Traders saw the move as a possible catalyst for internal pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire second phase, signaling political resistance and complicating peace efforts, which likely reduced confidence in Netanyahu's imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a major gas deal with Egypt strengthened his position as a regional leader and suggested political stability, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key obstacle to advancing the ceasefire. This heightened political tension and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, with market prices slightly declining to 53%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 57%4%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his leadership and affecting market confidence in his political future.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
The prime minister signed the largest ever Israeli gas export agreement, a move seen as bolstering his economic credentials but also tying Israel more closely to regional partners amid war fatigue, slightly easing resignation concerns for the December‑31 horizon.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling a major economic win and boosting expectations that he would stay in office at least through the end of the year.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened his political position by enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic prospects, reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Netanyahu approves historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened Israel's regional energy position and suggested political stability, reducing immediate speculation about his stepping down. This bolstered confidence in his leadership during the period.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 dips to 55%1%
A teenage boy was run over during a protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and pressure on his coalition partners, nudging the market lower on the likelihood of a resignation by year‑end.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu amid ongoing conflict and hostage issues. This event coincided with a price stabilization around 57-64%, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing governance and ability to secure significant economic agreements, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his ongoing active leadership role in regional diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This event occurred near the end of the analysis window with the market price steady at 57% Yes, indicating no immediate effect on resignation expectations.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces resignation, signaling political shifts in US
December 31 rises to 57%1%
While not directly related to Netanyahu, this significant political resignation in the US reflects broader political instability in allied countries, potentially influencing perceptions of Netanyahu's political durability. The market price was around 56-57% Yes at this time, showing no direct impact but contextual political uncertainty.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence, a significant domestic security issue that added pressure on his government and influenced market uncertainty about his political future.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 53%13%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the cease‑fire, highlighting diplomatic pressure and exposing potential political friction that caused the market to retreat on the resignation outlook.
Cabinet meeting on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a spike in settler attacks, underscoring internal security challenges and potential coalition strain, which pulled the market back down.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 drops to 53%14%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his ongoing corruption trial, a setback that could force the prime minister to consider resignation to avoid further political damage.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Pressure from U.S. envoys for Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase highlighted ongoing diplomatic challenges but also Netanyahu's central role, reinforcing market expectations of his political survival at least through 2025.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic pressure on his government and influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu seeks calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising domestic tensions, highlighting internal challenges that could impact his political standing and market perceptions of his tenure.
Bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 drops to 53%12%
A bus ran over a 14‑year‑old protester during massive demonstrations against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, sparking nationwide criticism of his handling of the draft issue and eroding his coalition’s stability, which pulled the "December 31" price down.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The approval of the largest ever Israeli gas export contract was presented as a major economic win that could stabilize Netanyahu’s coalition and reduce pressure for his resignation, further lifting the market’s confidence in a December‑31 outcome.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
Netanyahu's active response to escalating settler violence and security challenges demonstrated his continued leadership and control over domestic issues, supporting market confidence that he would remain in office through the end of 2025.
Netanyahu announces approval of $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing, which may have contributed to a price increase to 64% for the December 31 outcome as it suggested political stability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on him amid complex negotiations. This diplomatic push coincided with a market price rise from 57% to 64% Yes, reflecting increased uncertainty and speculation about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address surge in West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Escalating settler attacks prompted Netanyahu to call an emergency cabinet meeting, signaling political strain and the need to manage coalition pressures, which kept market participants focused on the December‑31 timeline for a potential resignation.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire to second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed him to move the Gaza cease‑fire into its second phase, increasing pressure on his government and suggesting possible political costs if he stalled, which nudged the market toward a resignation outlook.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Netanyahu spent three hours in a private White House meeting with President Trump, insisting on continued US‑Iran negotiations and signaling a strong US‑Israel partnership, which boosted confidence that Netanyahu could secure a diplomatic win before year‑end, pushing the December‑31 price up sharply.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 73%25%
The approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Netanyahu’s economic credentials and regional standing, temporarily boosting confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 surges to 69%22%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a significant internal security challenge that could impact his political standing. This event coincided with a sharp market price increase from 47% to 69% Yes, reflecting increased speculation about political instability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability under his leadership, which temporarily increased market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 surges to 67%15%
By committing to the U.S.‑led peace board, Netanyahu signaled willingness to cooperate with international partners, reducing resignation speculation and further lifting the market’s confidence in his continued tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 76%15%
The prime minister signed a historic natural‑gas agreement with Egypt, portraying a major economic win that reinforced his standing and suggested a stable governing coalition, further lifting the resignation‑probability market.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and willingness to cooperate on the Gaza ceasefire, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his political stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on ongoing negotiations with Iran, including limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This high-profile diplomatic engagement raised market confidence in Netanyahu's political maneuvering, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract to Egypt, positioning Israel as a regional energy power and easing post‑war economic pressures, which boosted confidence that he could negotiate a graceful exit later.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 surges to 62%15%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, raising market speculation about political pressures on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing conflicts. This high-profile diplomatic engagement contributed to a sharp price increase from 47% to 62% for the December 31 outcome.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, Trump warns Iran of strikes
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
During a high‑visibility meeting in Florida, President Trump warned Iran of further US strikes while standing beside Netanyahu, underscoring the close US‑Israel alliance and suggesting Netanyahu’s strategic leverage in regional security.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace, sparking coalition dissent
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to serve on President Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza cease‑fire, a reversal of his earlier criticism and a move that angered far‑right coalition partners, raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 67%15%
The approval of a historic gas deal signaled economic gains and regional cooperation, reinforcing Netanyahu’s political standing and prompting a sharp rise in the market’s Yes probability.
Israel confirms death of Hamas spokesman in August airstrike
December 31 dips to 43%3%
The confirmation that a senior Hamas spokesman was killed in an Israeli strike reduced speculation that Netanyahu might step down amid war pressures, nudging the market slightly lower as the conflict appeared to intensify without leadership changes.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive ultra‑Orthodox protest against a draft law. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tension and pressure on his coalition, nudging the market upward.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tension and the reliance on religious parties, increasing speculation of his possible resignation.
Israeli bus accident kills ultra-Orthodox teen amid draft protests
December 31 dips to 44%3%
A bus driver ran over and killed a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, escalating tensions in Israel. Netanyahu called for calm, highlighting the political sensitivity of the issue and its potential impact on his coalition support.
Netanyahu continues to engage in international diplomacy and peace efforts
Netanyahu's ongoing involvement in international diplomacy, including participation in peace process discussions and meetings with global leaders, reinforced his position as Prime Minister and contributed to the market's reduced probability of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
On August 18, 2025, Netanyahu agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza ceasefire plan, indicating his continued political engagement and leadership. This decision likely contributed to the market's stabilization around a lower probability of resignation by year-end.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the second phase of the Gaza cease‑fire, signaling heightened international scrutiny and potential diplomatic strain that could destabilize his government before the year‑end deadline.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu’s approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt reinforced his active governance and regional influence, reducing market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026. The deal was seen as a sign of political stability and ongoing leadership.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement of Gaza executive committee
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Israel’s government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza’s next steps, stating the committee was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This assertion of control and political agency by Netanyahu’s government indicated his continued leadership role, reinforcing market confidence against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 42%12%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint, demonstrating his continued leadership amid internal tensions. This event did not indicate any resignation plans, contributing to a market price drop reflecting uncertainty but no resignation signal.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 drops to 45%5%
On August 11, 2025, severe winter rains flooded Gaza camps, highlighting ongoing humanitarian challenges. Netanyahu traveled to the US for talks with President Trump about the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling his active role in regional diplomacy and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 45%5%
U.S. officials pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the cease‑fire plan, highlighting diplomatic friction and uncertainty over the timeline for ending hostilities, which contributed to a further price drop.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests demonstrated his ongoing role in managing domestic crises, indicating he was still firmly in power and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Netanyahu pushes Gaza ceasefire second phase with U.S. envoys
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and reconstruction. Netanyahu’s engagement in these complex negotiations suggested political stability and continuity, contributing to a decline in the market’s probability of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, intensifying tensions with religious coalition partners and weakening his political base, contributing to the price drop observed on July 26‑28.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Amid reports of settlers attacking Palestinian vehicles and setting fires, Netanyahu met security officials, signaling potential policy shifts and increasing political pressure from coalition partners, which further lowered market confidence.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Revealed digitally altered images of Netanyahu’s wife in official releases sparked a public ethics debate, casting doubt on the administration’s transparency and further damaging Netanyahu’s standing, which coincided with the market’s slide toward mid‑July.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee the Gaza ceasefire and broader peace efforts. This move signaled his commitment to ongoing political leadership and regional stability, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end 2026.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted tensions with religious parties that underpin his coalition, raising doubts about his ability to govern through December.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Iran’s president announced a full‑scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, heightening regional security concerns and putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government, further dragging the price down to 38% by August 11.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 45%8%
The fatal bus incident intensified protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, straining his coalition and prompting calls for his resignation, which coincided with the market’s slide to 45% on July 26.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35 billion natural‑gas export agreement with Egypt, a move seen as an attempt to bolster his regional standing but also sparked criticism from coalition partners who fear economic concessions could weaken his political base, lowering confidence in his year‑end tenure.
Netanyahu signs $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, highlighting Israel’s emerging energy role and bolstering his political standing, which helped push the market to its early‑window high.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace signaled his continued active role in regional diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end 2026. This engagement suggested political stability and ongoing leadership despite challenges.
Netanyahu seeks to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged calm to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions but did not signal any resignation, contributing to a slight market price drop from 59% to 53%.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran and regional security
On July 25, Netanyahu held a private meeting with US President Trump focusing on Iran and regional security issues. This meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in international diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026, as he appeared politically engaged and influential.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina governor
On July 25, 2025, Rep. Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for governor, signaling political shifts in the U.S. but with no direct impact on Netanyahu's position. This event coincides with the market's initial high probability for Netanyahu's resignation, but it did not cause a significant price change.
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