Trader consensus implies a 90% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026, driven by the absence of acute escalation signals and persistent deterrence amid routine military posturing. In the past month, People's Liberation Army activities have included standard aircraft carrier transits through the Taiwan Strait and air incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, but without the scale or aggressive rhetoric seen in prior exercises like Joint Sword-2024B following President Lai Ching-te's May inauguration. Beijing's official statements continue prioritizing "peaceful reunification" over force, while U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act reinforce deterrence. China's economic slowdown and assessed PLA amphibious invasion shortfalls further temper feasibility, though scenarios like a Taiwan Strait blockade or major diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird China bis Ende 2026 in Taiwan einmarschieren?
Wird China bis Ende 2026 in Taiwan einmarschieren?
Ja
$14,047,216 Vol.
$14,047,216 Vol.
Ja
$14,047,216 Vol.
$14,047,216 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Abwickler
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Abwickler
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus implies a 90% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026, driven by the absence of acute escalation signals and persistent deterrence amid routine military posturing. In the past month, People's Liberation Army activities have included standard aircraft carrier transits through the Taiwan Strait and air incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, but without the scale or aggressive rhetoric seen in prior exercises like Joint Sword-2024B following President Lai Ching-te's May inauguration. Beijing's official statements continue prioritizing "peaceful reunification" over force, while U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act reinforce deterrence. China's economic slowdown and assessed PLA amphibious invasion shortfalls further temper feasibility, though scenarios like a Taiwan Strait blockade or major diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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