The near-unanimous trader consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable negotiating positions. In the past 30 days, Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove amid heavy fighting, while Ukraine's Kursk incursion stalled against fierce counterattacks, underscoring a grinding stalemate. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories, Ukraine's neutrality, and demilitarization—terms flatly rejected by Kyiv, with no scheduled peace talks or diplomatic breakthroughs. Western sanctions and aid sustain the attrition war, mirroring failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Potential shifts include post-inauguration U.S. mediation, sudden economic pressures, or battlefield collapses, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertRussland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 31. März 2026?
Russland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 31. März 2026?
Ja
$28,359,757 Vol.
$28,359,757 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$28,359,757 Vol.
$28,359,757 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.The near-unanimous trader consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable negotiating positions. In the past 30 days, Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove amid heavy fighting, while Ukraine's Kursk incursion stalled against fierce counterattacks, underscoring a grinding stalemate. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories, Ukraine's neutrality, and demilitarization—terms flatly rejected by Kyiv, with no scheduled peace talks or diplomatic breakthroughs. Western sanctions and aid sustain the attrition war, mirroring failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Potential shifts include post-inauguration U.S. mediation, sudden economic pressures, or battlefield collapses, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$28,359,757Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.The near-unanimous trader consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable negotiating positions. In the past 30 days, Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove amid heavy fighting, while Ukraine's Kursk incursion stalled against fierce counterattacks, underscoring a grinding stalemate. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories, Ukraine's neutrality, and demilitarization—terms flatly rejected by Kyiv, with no scheduled peace talks or diplomatic breakthroughs. Western sanctions and aid sustain the attrition war, mirroring failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Potential shifts include post-inauguration U.S. mediation, sudden economic pressures, or battlefield collapses, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$28,359,757Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The near-unanimous trader consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026, stems from entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable negotiating positions. In the past 30 days, Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove amid heavy fighting, while Ukraine's Kursk incursion stalled against fierce counterattacks, underscoring a grinding stalemate. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories, Ukraine's neutrality, and demilitarization—terms flatly rejected by Kyiv, with no scheduled peace talks or diplomatic breakthroughs. Western sanctions and aid sustain the attrition war, mirroring failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Potential shifts include post-inauguration U.S. mediation, sudden economic pressures, or battlefield collapses, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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