Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled US-brokered talks that concluded on March 22 without breakthroughs, ongoing military escalations including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities as recent as March 28 and Russian advances near Sumy and Donetsk, and irreconcilable positions—Russia demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk while Kyiv vows no surrender. Front-line clashes and mutual POW exchanges persist without de-escalation signals, compounded by US aid potentially diverting to Middle East conflicts. With just days remaining, only an abrupt diplomatic summit or unilateral halt in hostilities could shift odds, though no such developments are scheduled or indicated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertRussland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 31. März 2026?
Russland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 31. März 2026?
Ja
$28,735,170 Vol.
$28,735,170 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$28,735,170 Vol.
$28,735,170 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled US-brokered talks that concluded on March 22 without breakthroughs, ongoing military escalations including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities as recent as March 28 and Russian advances near Sumy and Donetsk, and irreconcilable positions—Russia demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk while Kyiv vows no surrender. Front-line clashes and mutual POW exchanges persist without de-escalation signals, compounded by US aid potentially diverting to Middle East conflicts. With just days remaining, only an abrupt diplomatic summit or unilateral halt in hostilities could shift odds, though no such developments are scheduled or indicated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$28,735,170Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled US-brokered talks that concluded on March 22 without breakthroughs, ongoing military escalations including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities as recent as March 28 and Russian advances near Sumy and Donetsk, and irreconcilable positions—Russia demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk while Kyiv vows no surrender. Front-line clashes and mutual POW exchanges persist without de-escalation signals, compounded by US aid potentially diverting to Middle East conflicts. With just days remaining, only an abrupt diplomatic summit or unilateral halt in hostilities could shift odds, though no such developments are scheduled or indicated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$28,735,170Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 amid stalled US-brokered talks that concluded on March 22 without breakthroughs, ongoing military escalations including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities as recent as March 28 and Russian advances near Sumy and Donetsk, and irreconcilable positions—Russia demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk while Kyiv vows no surrender. Front-line clashes and mutual POW exchanges persist without de-escalation signals, compounded by US aid potentially diverting to Middle East conflicts. With just days remaining, only an abrupt diplomatic summit or unilateral halt in hostilities could shift odds, though no such developments are scheduled or indicated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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