Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?

Market icon

Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?

$915,852 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$915,852 Vol.

Polymarket

Russland

$246,071 Vol.

4%

Italien

$37,063 Vol.

4%

Indien

$42,738 Vol.

4%

Deutschland

$46,076 Vol.

3%

Brasilien

$12,681 Vol.

3%

Ukraine

$53,191 Vol.

3%

Belgien

$27,431 Vol.

2%

Niederlande

$8,358 Vol.

2%

Vereinigtes Königreich

$42,896 Vol.

2%

Schweden

$12,664 Vol.

2%

Palästina

$38,408 Vol.

2%

Norwegen

$34,310 Vol.

2%

Schweiz

$8,905 Vol.

1%

Dänemark

$15,080 Vol.

1%

Spanien

$40,543 Vol.

1%

Frankreich

$44,767 Vol.

1%

Finnland

$10,887 Vol.

1%

China

$90,998 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.

Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.

Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$915,852
Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met: - That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state. - Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace). Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join. Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel" at 100%, followed by "Türkei" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?" has generated $915.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?" is "Israel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Türkei" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Welche Länder werden dem Friedensrat bis zum 31. März beitreten?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.