Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained gray-zone activities like routine Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles, without kinetic escalation. A March 25 incident involving a Japanese Self-Defense Forces officer at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo prompted mutual protests and tightened security but de-escalated swiftly via diplomatic channels. Japan's recent deployment of 1,000-km Type-12 missiles on Kyushu and Okinawa bolsters deterrence amid the ongoing 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis over Taiwan contingencies, reinforced by US alliance commitments and deep economic ties that raise barriers to open conflict. Risks persist from miscalculations in East China Sea encounters or spillover from Taiwan tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$509,264 Vol.
$509,264 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$509,264 Vol.
$509,264 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained gray-zone activities like routine Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles, without kinetic escalation. A March 25 incident involving a Japanese Self-Defense Forces officer at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo prompted mutual protests and tightened security but de-escalated swiftly via diplomatic channels. Japan's recent deployment of 1,000-km Type-12 missiles on Kyushu and Okinawa bolsters deterrence amid the ongoing 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis over Taiwan contingencies, reinforced by US alliance commitments and deep economic ties that raise barriers to open conflict. Risks persist from miscalculations in East China Sea encounters or spillover from Taiwan tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Volumen
$509,264Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained gray-zone activities like routine Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles, without kinetic escalation. A March 25 incident involving a Japanese Self-Defense Forces officer at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo prompted mutual protests and tightened security but de-escalated swiftly via diplomatic channels. Japan's recent deployment of 1,000-km Type-12 missiles on Kyushu and Okinawa bolsters deterrence amid the ongoing 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis over Taiwan contingencies, reinforced by US alliance commitments and deep economic ties that raise barriers to open conflict. Risks persist from miscalculations in East China Sea encounters or spillover from Taiwan tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$509,264Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained gray-zone activities like routine Chinese coast guard incursions near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles, without kinetic escalation. A March 25 incident involving a Japanese Self-Defense Forces officer at the Chinese embassy in Tokyo prompted mutual protests and tightened security but de-escalated swiftly via diplomatic channels. Japan's recent deployment of 1,000-km Type-12 missiles on Kyushu and Okinawa bolsters deterrence amid the ongoing 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis over Taiwan contingencies, reinforced by US alliance commitments and deep economic ties that raise barriers to open conflict. Risks persist from miscalculations in East China Sea encounters or spillover from Taiwan tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen