Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic through April 30, driven by four weeks of near-total commercial halt since the February 28 Iran conflict escalation. Recent vessel counts remain critically low—five transits on March 25 and seven over March 25-26 versus a historical daily average of 60-100—limited to sanctioned Iran-linked ships amid tanker attacks, naval mines, IRGC gatekeeping, and GPS jamming. This has slashed oil flows from 20 million barrels daily, spiking war-risk premia, tanker charter rates, and Brent crude volatility. Absent de-escalation or military clearance, traders see scant path to IMF PortWatch-defined normalization (7-day moving average recovery) by month-end, with odds collapsing further in recent sessions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$1,488,739 Vol.
$1,488,739 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
$1,488,739 Vol.
$1,488,739 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic through April 30, driven by four weeks of near-total commercial halt since the February 28 Iran conflict escalation. Recent vessel counts remain critically low—five transits on March 25 and seven over March 25-26 versus a historical daily average of 60-100—limited to sanctioned Iran-linked ships amid tanker attacks, naval mines, IRGC gatekeeping, and GPS jamming. This has slashed oil flows from 20 million barrels daily, spiking war-risk premia, tanker charter rates, and Brent crude volatility. Absent de-escalation or military clearance, traders see scant path to IMF PortWatch-defined normalization (7-day moving average recovery) by month-end, with odds collapsing further in recent sessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,488,739Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic through April 30, driven by four weeks of near-total commercial halt since the February 28 Iran conflict escalation. Recent vessel counts remain critically low—five transits on March 25 and seven over March 25-26 versus a historical daily average of 60-100—limited to sanctioned Iran-linked ships amid tanker attacks, naval mines, IRGC gatekeeping, and GPS jamming. This has slashed oil flows from 20 million barrels daily, spiking war-risk premia, tanker charter rates, and Brent crude volatility. Absent de-escalation or military clearance, traders see scant path to IMF PortWatch-defined normalization (7-day moving average recovery) by month-end, with odds collapsing further in recent sessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,488,739Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic through April 30, driven by four weeks of near-total commercial halt since the February 28 Iran conflict escalation. Recent vessel counts remain critically low—five transits on March 25 and seven over March 25-26 versus a historical daily average of 60-100—limited to sanctioned Iran-linked ships amid tanker attacks, naval mines, IRGC gatekeeping, and GPS jamming. This has slashed oil flows from 20 million barrels daily, spiking war-risk premia, tanker charter rates, and Brent crude volatility. Absent de-escalation or military clearance, traders see scant path to IMF PortWatch-defined normalization (7-day moving average recovery) by month-end, with odds collapsing further in recent sessions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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