Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in late March 2026, reflecting verified maritime tracking data from Windward, Kpler, and Lloyd's List showing single-digit AIS-visible crossings—such as seven commercial vessels on March 25-26, four on March 24, and five on March 26—amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iranian forces declared the waterway closed since early March following military conflict escalation on February 28, deploying mines, drone strikes, and threats that slashed traffic over 95% from pre-crisis levels of 100+ vessels daily, with most passages limited to Iranian-linked or "non-hostile" ships from China and others. This skin-in-the-game assessment holds firm despite minor selective openings, as high insurance premiums and over 700 idled vessels underscore persistent risks; only a sudden diplomatic de-escalation or U.S.-led military clearance could challenge it, though both risk further escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDurchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Straße von Hormus Ende März durchfahren?
Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Straße von Hormus Ende März durchfahren?
0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,586,915 Vol.
$1,586,915 Vol.
31. März 2026
0-10
99%
10-20
<1%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,586,915 Vol.
$1,586,915 Vol.
31. März 2026
0-10
$478,603 Vol.
99%
10-20
$292,106 Vol.
<1%
20-30
$120,820 Vol.
<1%
30-40
$293,655 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$220,888 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$88,766 Vol.
<1%
60+
$92,076 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in late March 2026, reflecting verified maritime tracking data from Windward, Kpler, and Lloyd's List showing single-digit AIS-visible crossings—such as seven commercial vessels on March 25-26, four on March 24, and five on March 26—amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iranian forces declared the waterway closed since early March following military conflict escalation on February 28, deploying mines, drone strikes, and threats that slashed traffic over 95% from pre-crisis levels of 100+ vessels daily, with most passages limited to Iranian-linked or "non-hostile" ships from China and others. This skin-in-the-game assessment holds firm despite minor selective openings, as high insurance premiums and over 700 idled vessels underscore persistent risks; only a sudden diplomatic de-escalation or U.S.-led military clearance could challenge it, though both risk further escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,586,915Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in late March 2026, reflecting verified maritime tracking data from Windward, Kpler, and Lloyd's List showing single-digit AIS-visible crossings—such as seven commercial vessels on March 25-26, four on March 24, and five on March 26—amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iranian forces declared the waterway closed since early March following military conflict escalation on February 28, deploying mines, drone strikes, and threats that slashed traffic over 95% from pre-crisis levels of 100+ vessels daily, with most passages limited to Iranian-linked or "non-hostile" ships from China and others. This skin-in-the-game assessment holds firm despite minor selective openings, as high insurance premiums and over 700 idled vessels underscore persistent risks; only a sudden diplomatic de-escalation or U.S.-led military clearance could challenge it, though both risk further escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,586,915Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in late March 2026, reflecting verified maritime tracking data from Windward, Kpler, and Lloyd's List showing single-digit AIS-visible crossings—such as seven commercial vessels on March 25-26, four on March 24, and five on March 26—amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iranian forces declared the waterway closed since early March following military conflict escalation on February 28, deploying mines, drone strikes, and threats that slashed traffic over 95% from pre-crisis levels of 100+ vessels daily, with most passages limited to Iranian-linked or "non-hostile" ships from China and others. This skin-in-the-game assessment holds firm despite minor selective openings, as high insurance premiums and over 700 idled vessels underscore persistent risks; only a sudden diplomatic de-escalation or U.S.-led military clearance could challenge it, though both risk further escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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