Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since September 2026 have heightened risks of disruption, with the group controlling key positions that enable missile, drone, and small-boat operations against shipping. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October, claiming partial retakes of coastal areas and islands with reported Saudi air support, while both sides continue targeted strikes focused mainly on Saudi-linked vessels. Maritime tracking shows transits persisting at roughly 87% of prior-year levels as of late October, with no formal closure declared by authorities and ISPS Security Level 3 remaining in force. Ongoing volatility, selective embargo enforcement, and potential for escalation or further military shifts continue to shape trader assessments of effective closure probability.