Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which continue to suppress dissent amid economic sanctions and inflation. Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 provoked a restrained response from Tehran, prioritizing de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, with no signs of internal fractures or mass protests in the past 30 days. Supreme Leader Khamenei's enduring authority, despite unverified health rumors, bolsters stability; elite defections or sudden uprisings remain unlikely absent a major catalyst like leadership vacuum or external invasion.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird das iranische Regime bis zum 30. April fallen?
Wird das iranische Regime bis zum 30. April fallen?
Ja
$11,088,818 Vol.
$11,088,818 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
$11,088,818 Vol.
$11,088,818 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which continue to suppress dissent amid economic sanctions and inflation. Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 provoked a restrained response from Tehran, prioritizing de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, with no signs of internal fractures or mass protests in the past 30 days. Supreme Leader Khamenei's enduring authority, despite unverified health rumors, bolsters stability; elite defections or sudden uprisings remain unlikely absent a major catalyst like leadership vacuum or external invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volumen
$11,088,818Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which continue to suppress dissent amid economic sanctions and inflation. Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 provoked a restrained response from Tehran, prioritizing de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, with no signs of internal fractures or mass protests in the past 30 days. Supreme Leader Khamenei's enduring authority, despite unverified health rumors, bolsters stability; elite defections or sudden uprisings remain unlikely absent a major catalyst like leadership vacuum or external invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,088,818Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the Islamic Republic's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which continue to suppress dissent amid economic sanctions and inflation. Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 provoked a restrained response from Tehran, prioritizing de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, with no signs of internal fractures or mass protests in the past 30 days. Supreme Leader Khamenei's enduring authority, despite unverified health rumors, bolsters stability; elite defections or sudden uprisings remain unlikely absent a major catalyst like leadership vacuum or external invasion.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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