Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict. Despite Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and wounding his successor Mojtaba Khamenei—who has since issued statements asserting military resistance—the regime invoked constitutional mechanisms for a swift leadership transition, bolstering internal stability through IRGC loyalty and internet restrictions. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were violently suppressed without sparking mass uprising, and recent analyses from Israeli security services indicate no imminent collapse, as hopes among civilians for regime change fade. Ongoing military escalations persist, but core institutions remain intact, underscoring barriers to overthrow before year's end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$11,855,044 Vol.
$11,855,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$11,855,044 Vol.
$11,855,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict. Despite Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and wounding his successor Mojtaba Khamenei—who has since issued statements asserting military resistance—the regime invoked constitutional mechanisms for a swift leadership transition, bolstering internal stability through IRGC loyalty and internet restrictions. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were violently suppressed without sparking mass uprising, and recent analyses from Israeli security services indicate no imminent collapse, as hopes among civilians for regime change fade. Ongoing military escalations persist, but core institutions remain intact, underscoring barriers to overthrow before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$11,855,044Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict. Despite Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and wounding his successor Mojtaba Khamenei—who has since issued statements asserting military resistance—the regime invoked constitutional mechanisms for a swift leadership transition, bolstering internal stability through IRGC loyalty and internet restrictions. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were violently suppressed without sparking mass uprising, and recent analyses from Israeli security services indicate no imminent collapse, as hopes among civilians for regime change fade. Ongoing military escalations persist, but core institutions remain intact, underscoring barriers to overthrow before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,855,044Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 66.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will endure until 2027, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict. Despite Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and wounding his successor Mojtaba Khamenei—who has since issued statements asserting military resistance—the regime invoked constitutional mechanisms for a swift leadership transition, bolstering internal stability through IRGC loyalty and internet restrictions. Earlier 2025-2026 protests were violently suppressed without sparking mass uprising, and recent analyses from Israeli security services indicate no imminent collapse, as hopes among civilians for regime change fade. Ongoing military escalations persist, but core institutions remain intact, underscoring barriers to overthrow before year's end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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