**Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and internal pressures.** Despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting military and leadership assets since early 2026, widespread protests sparked by economic collapse and war escalation in late 2025–early 2026 were met with severe crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and IRGC enforcement, preventing a tipping point. Recent April developments, including Tehran's rejection of US threats and stalled diplomatic proposals without concessions, have hardened hard-liner control rather than fracturing it. No mass defections, successful opposition coordination, or leadership vacuum has emerged, with analysts noting external military pressure often rallies regimes historically. Upcoming potential ceasefire talks or further sanctions could influence dynamics, but structural entrenchment favors survival through 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$17,312,811 Vol.
$17,312,811 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$17,312,811 Vol.
$17,312,811 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and internal pressures.** Despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting military and leadership assets since early 2026, widespread protests sparked by economic collapse and war escalation in late 2025–early 2026 were met with severe crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and IRGC enforcement, preventing a tipping point. Recent April developments, including Tehran's rejection of US threats and stalled diplomatic proposals without concessions, have hardened hard-liner control rather than fracturing it. No mass defections, successful opposition coordination, or leadership vacuum has emerged, with analysts noting external military pressure often rallies regimes historically. Upcoming potential ceasefire talks or further sanctions could influence dynamics, but structural entrenchment favors survival through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$17,312,811Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and internal pressures.** Despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting military and leadership assets since early 2026, widespread protests sparked by economic collapse and war escalation in late 2025–early 2026 were met with severe crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and IRGC enforcement, preventing a tipping point. Recent April developments, including Tehran's rejection of US threats and stalled diplomatic proposals without concessions, have hardened hard-liner control rather than fracturing it. No mass defections, successful opposition coordination, or leadership vacuum has emerged, with analysts noting external military pressure often rallies regimes historically. Upcoming potential ceasefire talks or further sanctions could influence dynamics, but structural entrenchment favors survival through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,312,811Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war and internal pressures.** Despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting military and leadership assets since early 2026, widespread protests sparked by economic collapse and war escalation in late 2025–early 2026 were met with severe crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and IRGC enforcement, preventing a tipping point. Recent April developments, including Tehran's rejection of US threats and stalled diplomatic proposals without concessions, have hardened hard-liner control rather than fracturing it. No mass defections, successful opposition coordination, or leadership vacuum has emerged, with analysts noting external military pressure often rallies regimes historically. Upcoming potential ceasefire talks or further sanctions could influence dynamics, but structural entrenchment favors survival through 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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