Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from US-Israeli airstrikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 death, and ongoing 2025-2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war. A swift Assembly of Experts election installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor by early March, despite reports of his injuries, while the IRGC maintained operational control, enforced information blackouts, and orchestrated large pro-government rallies in Tehran on March 24. Although protests persist with anti-regime chants, security forces' loyalty and a rally-around-the-flag effect from escalation have contained uprisings, lowering collapse odds from earlier peaks near 50% as core institutions hold firm.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$11,856,513 Vol.
$11,856,513 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$11,856,513 Vol.
$11,856,513 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from US-Israeli airstrikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 death, and ongoing 2025-2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war. A swift Assembly of Experts election installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor by early March, despite reports of his injuries, while the IRGC maintained operational control, enforced information blackouts, and orchestrated large pro-government rallies in Tehran on March 24. Although protests persist with anti-regime chants, security forces' loyalty and a rally-around-the-flag effect from escalation have contained uprisings, lowering collapse odds from earlier peaks near 50% as core institutions hold firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$11,856,513Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from US-Israeli airstrikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 death, and ongoing 2025-2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war. A swift Assembly of Experts election installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor by early March, despite reports of his injuries, while the IRGC maintained operational control, enforced information blackouts, and orchestrated large pro-government rallies in Tehran on March 24. Although protests persist with anti-regime chants, security forces' loyalty and a rally-around-the-flag effect from escalation have contained uprisings, lowering collapse odds from earlier peaks near 50% as core institutions hold firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,856,538Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from US-Israeli airstrikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 death, and ongoing 2025-2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war. A swift Assembly of Experts election installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor by early March, despite reports of his injuries, while the IRGC maintained operational control, enforced information blackouts, and orchestrated large pro-government rallies in Tehran on March 24. Although protests persist with anti-regime chants, security forces' loyalty and a rally-around-the-flag effect from escalation have contained uprisings, lowering collapse odds from earlier peaks near 50% as core institutions hold firm.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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