Israeli forces continue targeted airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, with recent IDF raids in Jabalia refugee camp over the past week killing dozens, including militants and civilians according to Gaza health authorities, amid claims of Hamas regrouping. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US stalled in late October after disagreements on hostage releases, troop withdrawals, and control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Trader consensus reflects persistent low probability of de-escalation before year-end, driven by Netanyahu's insistence on dismantling Hamas infrastructure. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions and potential Hezbollah escalations on Israel's northern border could influence further military actions or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIsrael military action against Gaza on...?
Israel military action against Gaza on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
45%
April 2
49%
April 3
49%
April 4
48%
April 5
48%
April 6
47%
April 7
33%
April 8
34%
April 9
33%
April 10
33%
$197 Vol.
April 1
$0 Vol.
45%
April 2
$0 Vol.
49%
April 3
$0 Vol.
49%
April 4
$0 Vol.
48%
April 5
$0 Vol.
48%
April 6
$186 Vol.
47%
April 7
$0 Vol.
33%
April 8
$0 Vol.
34%
April 9
$0 Vol.
33%
April 10
$11 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces continue targeted airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, with recent IDF raids in Jabalia refugee camp over the past week killing dozens, including militants and civilians according to Gaza health authorities, amid claims of Hamas regrouping. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US stalled in late October after disagreements on hostage releases, troop withdrawals, and control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Trader consensus reflects persistent low probability of de-escalation before year-end, driven by Netanyahu's insistence on dismantling Hamas infrastructure. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions and potential Hezbollah escalations on Israel's northern border could influence further military actions or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Volumen
$197Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces continue targeted airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, with recent IDF raids in Jabalia refugee camp over the past week killing dozens, including militants and civilians according to Gaza health authorities, amid claims of Hamas regrouping. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US stalled in late October after disagreements on hostage releases, troop withdrawals, and control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Trader consensus reflects persistent low probability of de-escalation before year-end, driven by Netanyahu's insistence on dismantling Hamas infrastructure. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions and potential Hezbollah escalations on Israel's northern border could influence further military actions or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$197Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces continue targeted airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza, with recent IDF raids in Jabalia refugee camp over the past week killing dozens, including militants and civilians according to Gaza health authorities, amid claims of Hamas regrouping. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US stalled in late October after disagreements on hostage releases, troop withdrawals, and control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Trader consensus reflects persistent low probability of de-escalation before year-end, driven by Netanyahu's insistence on dismantling Hamas infrastructure. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions and potential Hezbollah escalations on Israel's northern border could influence further military actions or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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