US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in day 36 since February 28 launch, have degraded Tehran's medium-range missile capabilities and targeted bases beyond strict military sites, per April 3 reports, yet Iran retaliated by downing two US warplanes and launching missile salvos at Israel. Trader consensus implies low near-term resolution odds, with higher probabilities for endings in May or June, reflecting persistent escalations, Strait of Hormuz closures disrupting energy flows, and no ceasefire signals amid demands to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, missiles, and proxy support. Analysts foresee potential prolongation through April absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with ongoing combat operations ahead of schedule but strategic goals unmet.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$326,872 Vol.
31. März 2026
15. April
7%
30. April
35%
31. Mai
65%
30. Juni
80%
$326,872 Vol.
15. April
$35,332 Vol.
7%
30. April
$21,556 Vol.
35%
31. Mai
$11,897 Vol.
65%
30. Juni
$9,855 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in day 36 since February 28 launch, have degraded Tehran's medium-range missile capabilities and targeted bases beyond strict military sites, per April 3 reports, yet Iran retaliated by downing two US warplanes and launching missile salvos at Israel. Trader consensus implies low near-term resolution odds, with higher probabilities for endings in May or June, reflecting persistent escalations, Strait of Hormuz closures disrupting energy flows, and no ceasefire signals amid demands to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, missiles, and proxy support. Analysts foresee potential prolongation through April absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with ongoing combat operations ahead of schedule but strategic goals unmet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volumen
$326,872Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in day 36 since February 28 launch, have degraded Tehran's medium-range missile capabilities and targeted bases beyond strict military sites, per April 3 reports, yet Iran retaliated by downing two US warplanes and launching missile salvos at Israel. Trader consensus implies low near-term resolution odds, with higher probabilities for endings in May or June, reflecting persistent escalations, Strait of Hormuz closures disrupting energy flows, and no ceasefire signals amid demands to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, missiles, and proxy support. Analysts foresee potential prolongation through April absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with ongoing combat operations ahead of schedule but strategic goals unmet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$326,872Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in day 36 since February 28 launch, have degraded Tehran's medium-range missile capabilities and targeted bases beyond strict military sites, per April 3 reports, yet Iran retaliated by downing two US warplanes and launching missile salvos at Israel. Trader consensus implies low near-term resolution odds, with higher probabilities for endings in May or June, reflecting persistent escalations, Strait of Hormuz closures disrupting energy flows, and no ceasefire signals amid demands to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, missiles, and proxy support. Analysts foresee potential prolongation through April absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with ongoing combat operations ahead of schedule but strategic goals unmet.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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