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Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Market icon
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 66.5%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.5%

Hassan Rouhani 4.9%

Polymarket

$6,605,445 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 66.5%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.5%

Hassan Rouhani 4.9%

Polymarket

$6,605,445 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,563,901 Vol.

66%

Reza Pahlavi

$156,285 Vol.

9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$173,920 Vol.

8%

Hassan Rouhani

$281,996 Vol.

5%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$251,496 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$780,978 Vol.

3%

Kein Staatschef

$370,188 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$106,316 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$53,093 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$733,113 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$201,100 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$277,738 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$247,307 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$48,133 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$178,239 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$258,459 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$55,677 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$77,191 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$155,397 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$26,538 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$35,112 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$29,238 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$22,001 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$52,782 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$37,598 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$69,397 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$49,643 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$32,635 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$16,769 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$26,345 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader at end-2026 at 66.5%, reflecting his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid wartime urgency for continuity. This hereditary shift, the first since 1979, solidified hardliner control despite internal divisions. Recent reports from early April of Mojtaba's severe injuries or incapacity from airstrikes have fueled uncertainty, elevating exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% on his calls for regime transition and contacts with dissidents. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf holds 7.5% due to his institutional role, while lower odds for others like Hassan Rouhani underscore slim reformist prospects amid escalation. Ongoing conflict and health rumors could yet prompt further succession debates.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$6,605,445
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader at end-2026 at 66.5%, reflecting his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid wartime urgency for continuity. This hereditary shift, the first since 1979, solidified hardliner control despite internal divisions. Recent reports from early April of Mojtaba's severe injuries or incapacity from airstrikes have fueled uncertainty, elevating exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% on his calls for regime transition and contacts with dissidents. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf holds 7.5% due to his institutional role, while lower odds for others like Hassan Rouhani underscore slim reformist prospects amid escalation. Ongoing conflict and health rumors could yet prompt further succession debates.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$6,605,445
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 66%, gefolgt von „Reza Pahlavi" mit 9%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 66¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 66% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $6.6 million generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 1, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 66%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 66% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Reza Pahlavi" mit 9%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.