Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 53.4% to succeed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, by end-2026, driven by the 85-year-old leader's advancing age, frail health rumors, and Mojtaba's behind-the-scenes influence in clerical and IRGC circles as a potential Assembly of Experts pick. Recent public appearances by Khamenei, including addresses amid Iran-Israel missile exchanges in October 2024, have quelled immediate death speculation and reinforced regime continuity, limiting odds for exiles like Reza Pahlavi (12.5%), who draws diaspora support but faces slim prospects of internal upheaval. Lower probabilities for figures like Ghalibaf or Khomeini reflect their secondary roles absent a sudden leadership vacuum, with no scheduled succession events but ongoing regional tensions as potential catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran-Führer Ende 2026?
Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 53.4%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.4%
Hassan Khomeini 4.4%
$4,526,059 Vol.
$4,526,059 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
53%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
4%
Masoud Pezeshkian
4%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Kein Staatschef
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 53.4%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.4%
Hassan Khomeini 4.4%
$4,526,059 Vol.
$4,526,059 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
53%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
4%
Masoud Pezeshkian
4%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Kein Staatschef
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 53.4% to succeed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, by end-2026, driven by the 85-year-old leader's advancing age, frail health rumors, and Mojtaba's behind-the-scenes influence in clerical and IRGC circles as a potential Assembly of Experts pick. Recent public appearances by Khamenei, including addresses amid Iran-Israel missile exchanges in October 2024, have quelled immediate death speculation and reinforced regime continuity, limiting odds for exiles like Reza Pahlavi (12.5%), who draws diaspora support but faces slim prospects of internal upheaval. Lower probabilities for figures like Ghalibaf or Khomeini reflect their secondary roles absent a sudden leadership vacuum, with no scheduled succession events but ongoing regional tensions as potential catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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