Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the February 2026 breakdown of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where no deal emerged despite Omani mediation claims of Iran's willingness to zero out enriched uranium stockpiles. A March 25 U.S. 15-point proposal demanded permanent cessation of enrichment, dismantlement of facilities, and handover of 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium to the IAEA—demands Iran has rejected, insisting on its right to peaceful enrichment. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's ongoing 440+ kg stockpile stored underground at Isfahan, limited agency access, and unverifiable suspension of activities, amid stalled diplomacy and post-attack tensions, underscoring substantial barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertStimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Stimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Ja
$131,461 Vol.
$131,461 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
$131,461 Vol.
$131,461 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the February 2026 breakdown of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where no deal emerged despite Omani mediation claims of Iran's willingness to zero out enriched uranium stockpiles. A March 25 U.S. 15-point proposal demanded permanent cessation of enrichment, dismantlement of facilities, and handover of 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium to the IAEA—demands Iran has rejected, insisting on its right to peaceful enrichment. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's ongoing 440+ kg stockpile stored underground at Isfahan, limited agency access, and unverifiable suspension of activities, amid stalled diplomacy and post-attack tensions, underscoring substantial barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$131,461Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the February 2026 breakdown of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where no deal emerged despite Omani mediation claims of Iran's willingness to zero out enriched uranium stockpiles. A March 25 U.S. 15-point proposal demanded permanent cessation of enrichment, dismantlement of facilities, and handover of 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium to the IAEA—demands Iran has rejected, insisting on its right to peaceful enrichment. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's ongoing 440+ kg stockpile stored underground at Isfahan, limited agency access, and unverifiable suspension of activities, amid stalled diplomacy and post-attack tensions, underscoring substantial barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$131,488Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the February 2026 breakdown of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where no deal emerged despite Omani mediation claims of Iran's willingness to zero out enriched uranium stockpiles. A March 25 U.S. 15-point proposal demanded permanent cessation of enrichment, dismantlement of facilities, and handover of 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium to the IAEA—demands Iran has rejected, insisting on its right to peaceful enrichment. Recent IAEA reports highlight Iran's ongoing 440+ kg stockpile stored underground at Isfahan, limited agency access, and unverifiable suspension of activities, amid stalled diplomacy and post-attack tensions, underscoring substantial barriers to any pre-deadline accord.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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