Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by stalled US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations amid escalating military actions. The US delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, handover of its 441 kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, full IAEA access, and cessation of enrichment—terms Iran has rejected, countering with ceasefire conditions excluding nuclear concessions. Recent Israeli and US airstrikes on facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reported as late as March 27, alongside IAEA-denied inspections, underscore Tehran's insistence on its right to enrichment and diminish prospects for agreement before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertStimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Stimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Ja
$132,723 Vol.
$132,723 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
$132,723 Vol.
$132,723 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by stalled US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations amid escalating military actions. The US delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, handover of its 441 kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, full IAEA access, and cessation of enrichment—terms Iran has rejected, countering with ceasefire conditions excluding nuclear concessions. Recent Israeli and US airstrikes on facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reported as late as March 27, alongside IAEA-denied inspections, underscore Tehran's insistence on its right to enrichment and diminish prospects for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$132,723Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by stalled US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations amid escalating military actions. The US delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, handover of its 441 kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, full IAEA access, and cessation of enrichment—terms Iran has rejected, countering with ceasefire conditions excluding nuclear concessions. Recent Israeli and US airstrikes on facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reported as late as March 27, alongside IAEA-denied inspections, underscore Tehran's insistence on its right to enrichment and diminish prospects for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$132,723Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by stalled US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations amid escalating military actions. The US delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan on March 24, demanding dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, handover of its 441 kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, full IAEA access, and cessation of enrichment—terms Iran has rejected, countering with ceasefire conditions excluding nuclear concessions. Recent Israeli and US airstrikes on facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reported as late as March 27, alongside IAEA-denied inspections, underscore Tehran's insistence on its right to enrichment and diminish prospects for agreement before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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