Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's repeated rejections of U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program entirely. Indirect Oman-mediated talks in late February yielded Iran's commitment to zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but explicitly preserved enrichment rights, falling short of full cessation. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, including strikes near Bushehr, prompted Netanyahu's March 19 claim that Iran's enrichment capacity is destroyed, yet IAEA assessments confirm the program's resilience amid unresolved safeguards issues. With three days remaining and no scheduled negotiations signaling concession, a late diplomatic reversal or regime shift would be required to alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertStimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 31. März zu beenden?
Stimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 31. März zu beenden?
Ja
$2,142,061 Vol.
$2,142,061 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$2,142,061 Vol.
$2,142,061 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's repeated rejections of U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program entirely. Indirect Oman-mediated talks in late February yielded Iran's commitment to zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but explicitly preserved enrichment rights, falling short of full cessation. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, including strikes near Bushehr, prompted Netanyahu's March 19 claim that Iran's enrichment capacity is destroyed, yet IAEA assessments confirm the program's resilience amid unresolved safeguards issues. With three days remaining and no scheduled negotiations signaling concession, a late diplomatic reversal or regime shift would be required to alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volumen
$2,142,061Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's repeated rejections of U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program entirely. Indirect Oman-mediated talks in late February yielded Iran's commitment to zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but explicitly preserved enrichment rights, falling short of full cessation. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, including strikes near Bushehr, prompted Netanyahu's March 19 claim that Iran's enrichment capacity is destroyed, yet IAEA assessments confirm the program's resilience amid unresolved safeguards issues. With three days remaining and no scheduled negotiations signaling concession, a late diplomatic reversal or regime shift would be required to alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,142,061Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's repeated rejections of U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program entirely. Indirect Oman-mediated talks in late February yielded Iran's commitment to zero enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, but explicitly preserved enrichment rights, falling short of full cessation. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, including strikes near Bushehr, prompted Netanyahu's March 19 claim that Iran's enrichment capacity is destroyed, yet IAEA assessments confirm the program's resilience amid unresolved safeguards issues. With three days remaining and no scheduled negotiations signaling concession, a late diplomatic reversal or regime shift would be required to alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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