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Geopolitik·Schiff

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Geopolitik·Schiff

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

20-24 24%

15-19 18%

45+ 18%

35-39 15%

Polymarket
NEW

20-24 24%

15-19 18%

45+ 18%

35-39 15%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$1,290 Vol.

3%

10-14

$271 Vol.

8%

15-19

$243 Vol.

18%

20-24

$173 Vol.

24%

25-29

$165 Vol.

13%

30-34

$173 Vol.

15%

35-39

$163 Vol.

15%

40-44

$243 Vol.

13%

45+

$770 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$3,239
Enddatum
Mar 29, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 25%, with 45+ (17.5%) and mid-range bins (15-39 ships) tightly clustered around 15-17.5%, reflecting steady but subdued flows amid regional tensions. US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15-16 escalated fears of Iranian retaliation or proxy disruptions at this critical oil chokepoint, prompting some shippers to delay voyages despite no direct Hormuz blockades. Nowruz holidays across Gulf states through late March further dampened commercial activity, aligning with recent AIS-tracked daily averages of 3-4 vessels. Normalization post-holiday or new de-escalation signals could boost toward 45+, while fresh threats or seizures might drive counts below 15.

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„How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20-24" mit 24%, gefolgt von „15-19" mit 18%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 24¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 24% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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