Trader consensus on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects deep skepticism amid escalating proxy conflicts and absent direct negotiations, with odds hovering low following Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military targets, which Tehran minimized as limited damage. US officials emphasized Israel's independent action while reinforcing regional deterrence against Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis, amid stalled nuclear talks and tightened sanctions. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and pledges to end Middle East wars introduce uncertainty, potentially spurring deal-making or further pressure. Key watches include Gaza hostage talks and Lebanon ceasefire efforts, which could indirectly de-escalate Iran tensions before year-end deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWaffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
Waffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
$25,613,006 Vol.
31. März
8%
15. April
22%
30. April
33%
31. Mai
43%
30. Juni
52%
31. Dezember
68%
$25,613,006 Vol.
31. März
8%
15. April
22%
30. April
33%
31. Mai
43%
30. Juni
52%
31. Dezember
68%
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects deep skepticism amid escalating proxy conflicts and absent direct negotiations, with odds hovering low following Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military targets, which Tehran minimized as limited damage. US officials emphasized Israel's independent action while reinforcing regional deterrence against Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and Houthis, amid stalled nuclear talks and tightened sanctions. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and pledges to end Middle East wars introduce uncertainty, potentially spurring deal-making or further pressure. Key watches include Gaza hostage talks and Lebanon ceasefire efforts, which could indirectly de-escalate Iran tensions before year-end deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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