This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz blockade and nuclear issues, indirect negotiations via Qatar and Pakistan backchannels have stalled without an in-person diplomatic meeting in the past month. Iran recently set five preconditions for resuming talks—halting attacks, security guarantees, reparations, regional ceasefires, and Hormuz sovereignty recognition—prompting President Trump to deem Tehran's counterproposal unacceptable and declare the truce on "life support." Fresh momentum emerged today as Trump, during Beijing talks with Xi Jinping, secured China's offer to mediate de-escalation and reopen the strait. Traders reflect this uncertainty in implied probabilities, pricing moderate odds for a breakthrough by late June amid competing diplomatic pressures and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid a fragile ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz blockade and nuclear issues, indirect negotiations via Qatar and Pakistan backchannels have stalled without an in-person diplomatic meeting in the past month. Iran recently set five preconditions for resuming talks—halting attacks, security guarantees, reparations, regional ceasefires, and Hormuz sovereignty recognition—prompting President Trump to deem Tehran's counterproposal unacceptable and declare the truce on "life support." Fresh momentum emerged today as Trump, during Beijing talks with Xi Jinping, secured China's offer to mediate de-escalation and reopen the strait. Traders reflect this uncertainty in implied probabilities, pricing moderate odds for a breakthrough by late June amid competing diplomatic pressures and escalation risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz blockade and nuclear issues, indirect negotiations via Qatar and Pakistan backchannels have stalled without an in-person diplomatic meeting in the past month. Iran recently set five preconditions for resuming talks—halting attacks, security guarantees, reparations, regional ceasefires, and Hormuz sovereignty recognition—prompting President Trump to deem Tehran's counterproposal unacceptable and declare the truce on "life support." Fresh momentum emerged today as Trump, during Beijing talks with Xi Jinping, secured China's offer to mediate de-escalation and reopen the strait. Traders reflect this uncertainty in implied probabilities, pricing moderate odds for a breakthrough by late June amid competing diplomatic pressures and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid a fragile ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz blockade and nuclear issues, indirect negotiations via Qatar and Pakistan backchannels have stalled without an in-person diplomatic meeting in the past month. Iran recently set five preconditions for resuming talks—halting attacks, security guarantees, reparations, regional ceasefires, and Hormuz sovereignty recognition—prompting President Trump to deem Tehran's counterproposal unacceptable and declare the truce on "life support." Fresh momentum emerged today as Trump, during Beijing talks with Xi Jinping, secured China's offer to mediate de-escalation and reopen the strait. Traders reflect this uncertainty in implied probabilities, pricing moderate odds for a breakthrough by late June amid competing diplomatic pressures and escalation risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 14 2026
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
May 12 2026
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
May 12 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
May 12 2026
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
May 12 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
May 10 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
May 10 2026
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers as tensions rise in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings before May 31. This contributed to further declines in market probabilities for near-term meetings.
May 8 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
May 7 2026
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
May 2 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
May 1 2026
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Apr 30 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 38%7%
The seizure was viewed as a provocative act that further reduced expectations of a diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price from 45% to 38% the following day.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Apr 26 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Apr 26 2026
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Apr 23 2026
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
Apr 21 2026
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
Apr 21 2026
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 20 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „30. Juni" mit 57%, gefolgt von „31. Mai" mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 57¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $36.3 million generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 20 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" ist „30. Juni" mit 57%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. Mai" mit 26%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $36.3 million Handelsvolumen bei “Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 57¢ für „30. Juni" im Markt „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 57% sehen, dass „30. Juni" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 57¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 43¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Das geplante Enddatum des Marktes „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" ist verstrichen, aber der Markt wurde noch nicht offiziell aufgelöst. Das Enddatum gibt an, wann das zugrunde liegende Ereignis voraussichtlich eintritt oder erkennbar wird. Der Markt bleibt bis zur formellen Auflösung für den Handel geöffnet. Prüfen Sie den Auflösungsstatus und den Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite für Updates.
Der Markt „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?" hat eine aktive Community mit 4,437 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen