Trader consensus assigning a 99.3 percent probability against Donald Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 stems from the waterway’s status as an international passage governed by maritime conventions and bilateral agreements involving Iran and Oman. No executive order, presidential memorandum, or official statement has proposed altering its established geographic designation, and unilateral U.S. action would lack enforcement power over foreign territorial waters. Historical patterns show presidents do not pursue symbolic name changes for strategic chokepoints without congressional authorization or diplomatic coordination, neither of which appears on the legislative calendar before the deadline. The near-certain outcome reflects these procedural and geopolitical constraints. A last-minute proclamation could theoretically shift odds if issued and verified before May 31, though such a step would remain unprecedented and subject to immediate international challenge.