Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?
$17,619,811 Vol.
15. Mai 2026
15. Mai
$3,059,489 Vol.
1%
22. Mai
$1,132,267 Vol.
10%
31. Mai
$3,053,457 Vol.
24%
30. Juni
$551,642 Vol.
50%
$17,619,811 Vol.
15. Mai
$3,059,489 Vol.
1%
22. Mai
$1,132,267 Vol.
10%
31. Mai
$3,053,457 Vol.
24%
30. Juni
$551,642 Vol.
50%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed April 12 after failed Iran ceasefire talks, remains in effect despite Iran's partial reopening of the waterway and the recent pause in Operation Project Freedom on May 5 to advance negotiations. In the past 48 hours, Trump held talks with China's Xi Jinping, who expressed interest in facilitating reopening due to Beijing's reliance on regional oil imports, with some Chinese vessels transiting amid de-escalation signals. Traders assess low near-term odds for a lift announcement, watching Iran diplomacy, potential Trump-Xi summit outcomes, and ceasefire status on "life support," as any deal could restore commercial traffic and resolve the standoff by late May or June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed April 12 after failed Iran ceasefire talks, remains in effect despite Iran's partial reopening of the waterway and the recent pause in Operation Project Freedom on May 5 to advance negotiations. In the past 48 hours, Trump held talks with China's Xi Jinping, who expressed interest in facilitating reopening due to Beijing's reliance on regional oil imports, with some Chinese vessels transiting amid de-escalation signals. Traders assess low near-term odds for a lift announcement, watching Iran diplomacy, potential Trump-Xi summit outcomes, and ceasefire status on "life support," as any deal could restore commercial traffic and resolve the standoff by late May or June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 14 2026
UK hosts multinational summit urging Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic push by over 40 countries highlighted continued international pressure on Iran, but without a US announcement of lifting the blockade, market sentiment remained low for a lift by any of the target dates.
May 14 2026
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
A strong jobs report lifted broader market sentiment, temporarily offsetting war‑related risks and causing a modest rebound in the Yes probability for later dates.
May 12 2026
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
May 15 dips to 9%2%
Strong US economic data temporarily eased market fears about the blockade’s impact, nudging Yes prices slightly higher for the earliest dates before they fell again later in the week.
May 10 2026
US stocks hit records as jobs report overshadows higher oil prices, but oil remains elevated
A strong jobs report temporarily lifted market optimism, but persistent high oil prices tied to the blockade limited the rally, contributing to a modest price rebound before the next decline.
May 10 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, pushing prices lower for all outcome dates.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
U.S. forces engaged Iranian tankers, underscoring ongoing hostilities and reducing market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by any of the listed dates.
May 8 2026
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
May 22 plunges to 35%25%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 14%10%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
May 3 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Continued US military engagement kept the blockade in effect and underscored the lack of any imminent de‑escalation, driving prices lower.
May 3 2026
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 20%14%
Trump unveiled a plan to allow limited ship movements, creating brief optimism that the blockade might be eased, which temporarily lifted Yes prices for the nearer dates.
Apr 30 2026
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 44%16%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but no direct US involvement or lifting of blockade.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 31 dips to 50%2%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief visit to Pakistan to continue mediation efforts, but Trump suggested talks could be by phone, reflecting ongoing diplomatic deadlock and no indication of lifting the blockade soon.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 22 drops to 28%5%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan as mediators tried to revive ceasefire negotiations, but President Trump suggested talks could happen by phone instead, indicating ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear progress toward lifting the blockade.
Apr 25 2026
Talks between U.S. and Iran stumble as Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan
May 22 plunges to 33%27%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations. This development reduced market optimism about a near-term resolution and lifting of the blockade.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 52%5%
Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations and no progress toward lifting the blockade, contributing to market declines in the probability of a 'Yes' outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 31 drops to 54%10%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, indicating no imminent resolution and continuation of the blockade, which further lowered market expectations for lifting the blockade by May deadlines.
Apr 24 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s offer removed a potential diplomatic pathway to lifting the blockade, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Apr 23 2026
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 60%4%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling stalled negotiations and continued uncertainty over the blockade's future.
Apr 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace offer signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish for a lift.
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
The first interception since the blockade began signaled a hardening US stance, prompting a further drop in market confidence that the blockade would end soon.
Apr 19 2026
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%21%
The U.S. Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, marking the first such interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market perceptions of the blockade's continuation.
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 dips to 79%4%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a significant escalation and signaling the US's intent to maintain the blockade, reducing market confidence in lifting it soon.
Apr 18 2026
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was fully closed and engaged vessels, heightening the risk of continued conflict and reducing optimism that the US would lift its blockade soon.
Apr 18 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships attempting passage
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on ships trying to pass, responding to the US blockade. This escalated tensions and diminished hopes for a quick lifting of the blockade.
Apr 18 2026
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed and engaged vessels attempting passage, further reducing expectations of a quick lift.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the ongoing conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and economic impacts globally.
Apr 13 2026
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks, aiming to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement initiated the market and set the stage for subsequent developments.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports on April 12, 2026, escalating tensions and aiming to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement set the baseline for the market and increased uncertainty about the blockade's duration.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade on Monday, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian vessels to transit the strait until a deal is reached, intensifying market fears of a prolonged closure.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed April 12 after failed Iran ceasefire talks, remains in effect despite Iran's partial reopening of the waterway and the recent pause in Operation Project Freedom on May 5 to advance negotiations. In the past 48 hours, Trump held talks with China's Xi Jinping, who expressed interest in facilitating reopening due to Beijing's reliance on regional oil imports, with some Chinese vessels transiting amid de-escalation signals. Traders assess low near-term odds for a lift announcement, watching Iran diplomacy, potential Trump-Xi summit outcomes, and ceasefire status on "life support," as any deal could restore commercial traffic and resolve the standoff by late May or June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed April 12 after failed Iran ceasefire talks, remains in effect despite Iran's partial reopening of the waterway and the recent pause in Operation Project Freedom on May 5 to advance negotiations. In the past 48 hours, Trump held talks with China's Xi Jinping, who expressed interest in facilitating reopening due to Beijing's reliance on regional oil imports, with some Chinese vessels transiting amid de-escalation signals. Traders assess low near-term odds for a lift announcement, watching Iran diplomacy, potential Trump-Xi summit outcomes, and ceasefire status on "life support," as any deal could restore commercial traffic and resolve the standoff by late May or June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 14 2026
UK hosts multinational summit urging Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic push by over 40 countries highlighted continued international pressure on Iran, but without a US announcement of lifting the blockade, market sentiment remained low for a lift by any of the target dates.
May 14 2026
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
A strong jobs report lifted broader market sentiment, temporarily offsetting war‑related risks and causing a modest rebound in the Yes probability for later dates.
May 12 2026
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
May 15 dips to 9%2%
Strong US economic data temporarily eased market fears about the blockade’s impact, nudging Yes prices slightly higher for the earliest dates before they fell again later in the week.
May 10 2026
US stocks hit records as jobs report overshadows higher oil prices, but oil remains elevated
A strong jobs report temporarily lifted market optimism, but persistent high oil prices tied to the blockade limited the rally, contributing to a modest price rebound before the next decline.
May 10 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, pushing prices lower for all outcome dates.
May 8 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
U.S. forces engaged Iranian tankers, underscoring ongoing hostilities and reducing market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by any of the listed dates.
May 8 2026
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
May 22 plunges to 35%25%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade.
May 8 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 14%10%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
May 3 2026
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Continued US military engagement kept the blockade in effect and underscored the lack of any imminent de‑escalation, driving prices lower.
May 3 2026
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 20%14%
Trump unveiled a plan to allow limited ship movements, creating brief optimism that the blockade might be eased, which temporarily lifted Yes prices for the nearer dates.
Apr 30 2026
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 44%16%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but no direct US involvement or lifting of blockade.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 31 dips to 50%2%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief visit to Pakistan to continue mediation efforts, but Trump suggested talks could be by phone, reflecting ongoing diplomatic deadlock and no indication of lifting the blockade soon.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 22 drops to 28%5%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan as mediators tried to revive ceasefire negotiations, but President Trump suggested talks could happen by phone instead, indicating ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear progress toward lifting the blockade.
Apr 25 2026
Talks between U.S. and Iran stumble as Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan
May 22 plunges to 33%27%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations. This development reduced market optimism about a near-term resolution and lifting of the blockade.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 52%5%
Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations and no progress toward lifting the blockade, contributing to market declines in the probability of a 'Yes' outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 31 drops to 54%10%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, indicating no imminent resolution and continuation of the blockade, which further lowered market expectations for lifting the blockade by May deadlines.
Apr 24 2026
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s offer removed a potential diplomatic pathway to lifting the blockade, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Apr 23 2026
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 60%4%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling stalled negotiations and continued uncertainty over the blockade's future.
Apr 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace offer signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish for a lift.
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
The first interception since the blockade began signaled a hardening US stance, prompting a further drop in market confidence that the blockade would end soon.
Apr 19 2026
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%21%
The U.S. Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, marking the first such interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market perceptions of the blockade's continuation.
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 dips to 79%4%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a significant escalation and signaling the US's intent to maintain the blockade, reducing market confidence in lifting it soon.
Apr 18 2026
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was fully closed and engaged vessels, heightening the risk of continued conflict and reducing optimism that the US would lift its blockade soon.
Apr 18 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships attempting passage
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on ships trying to pass, responding to the US blockade. This escalated tensions and diminished hopes for a quick lifting of the blockade.
Apr 18 2026
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed and engaged vessels attempting passage, further reducing expectations of a quick lift.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the ongoing conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and economic impacts globally.
Apr 13 2026
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks, aiming to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement initiated the market and set the stage for subsequent developments.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports on April 12, 2026, escalating tensions and aiming to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement set the baseline for the market and increased uncertainty about the blockade's duration.
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade on Monday, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian vessels to transit the strait until a deal is reached, intensifying market fears of a prolonged closure.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ist „30. Juni" mit 50%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. Mai" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $17.6 million Handelsvolumen bei “Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 50¢ für „30. Juni" im Markt „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 50% sehen, dass „30. Juni" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 50¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 50¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Der Markt „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ist geplant, um am oder um den Jun 30, 2026 aufgelöst zu werden. Das bedeutet, dass der Handel offen bleibt und die Quoten sich weiter verschieben, bis dieses Datum erreicht ist. Der genaue Auflösungszeitpunkt hängt davon ab, wann das offizielle Ergebnis verfügbar ist, wie im Abschnitt „Regeln" beschrieben.
Der Markt „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" hat eine aktive Community mit 463 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
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