Recent US-Iran negotiations center on resolving Iran's ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium following 2025-2026 strikes on nuclear sites and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Vice President JD Vance has emphasized that any deal ending the conflict requires verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity and concrete steps rather than assurances, with Washington rejecting promises alone amid uncertainty over decision-making in Tehran. Proposals have included on-site downblending under IAEA supervision or potential transfer mechanisms, but Iran has signaled openness to concessions only in exchange for sanctions relief and recognition of peaceful nuclear rights. Trader consensus reflects barriers from these disputes, stalled final-deal talks after the MOU's 60-day window, and limited IAEA access, with low implied probabilities for direct US possession by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz could shift positioning.