Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations toward a nuclear agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represent the primary driver of the 81% trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and an April ceasefire, the administration has prioritized diplomacy, with recent reports indicating progress on a memorandum of understanding mediated partly by third parties. President Trump has publicly described the framework as largely negotiated while maintaining that military options remain available if talks fail. No U.S. ground forces have established territorial control in Iran, consistent with historical reliance on air and naval operations rather than full-scale invasion amid high logistical costs. A collapse in talks or renewed escalation could shift odds before the December 2026 resolution window.