Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and subsequent April ceasefire represent the primary driver behind the 81.5% trader consensus on "No." Mediated in part by Pakistan and Qatar, recent late-May reports indicate progress toward a memorandum of understanding that would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift blockades, and address Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs through 60-day talks. U.S. officials have emphasized de-escalation and air-naval operations over ground forces, consistent with the market's definition of invasion as establishing territorial control. No U.S. troops have secured Iranian territory to date, and administration signals favor diplomatic resolution through December 2026 despite periodic violations and outstanding issues. A collapse in talks could shift odds, yet current developments sustain the elevated probability against full-scale invasion.