Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including a reported tentative memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension, represent the main factor behind traders assigning an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion before 2027. The framework under review by President Trump covers reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limits on enriched uranium, and sanctions relief, with officials from both sides signaling progress toward a longer-term agreement despite remaining disagreements and limited strikes during the fragile truce. This trajectory aligns with the market's view that containment through talks and targeted measures will continue to outweigh the risks and costs of a full-scale ground offensive through the end of 2026.