Trader consensus at 96.1% "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since the 2014 annexation, featuring layered defenses, air superiority, and naval basing that demand unattainable amphibious or overland assaults from Ukraine amid manpower shortages and eastern frontline pressures. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments through mid-March 2026 highlight Ukrainian territorial gains limited to about 460 square kilometers in February—far from the peninsula—with Russian forces seizing settlements and investing billions in occupied infrastructure, including Crimea. No verified advances toward recapture have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring logistical barriers. Scenarios like a massive Western arms surge enabling breakthroughs or sudden Russian withdrawal remain possible but improbable before June 30 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird die Ukraine bis zum 30. Juni 2026 das Territorium der Krim zurückerobern?
Wird die Ukraine bis zum 30. Juni 2026 das Territorium der Krim zurückerobern?
Ja
$51,663 Vol.
$51,663 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
$51,663 Vol.
$51,663 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus at 96.1% "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since the 2014 annexation, featuring layered defenses, air superiority, and naval basing that demand unattainable amphibious or overland assaults from Ukraine amid manpower shortages and eastern frontline pressures. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments through mid-March 2026 highlight Ukrainian territorial gains limited to about 460 square kilometers in February—far from the peninsula—with Russian forces seizing settlements and investing billions in occupied infrastructure, including Crimea. No verified advances toward recapture have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring logistical barriers. Scenarios like a massive Western arms surge enabling breakthroughs or sudden Russian withdrawal remain possible but improbable before June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$51,663Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus at 96.1% "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since the 2014 annexation, featuring layered defenses, air superiority, and naval basing that demand unattainable amphibious or overland assaults from Ukraine amid manpower shortages and eastern frontline pressures. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments through mid-March 2026 highlight Ukrainian territorial gains limited to about 460 square kilometers in February—far from the peninsula—with Russian forces seizing settlements and investing billions in occupied infrastructure, including Crimea. No verified advances toward recapture have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring logistical barriers. Scenarios like a massive Western arms surge enabling breakthroughs or sudden Russian withdrawal remain possible but improbable before June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volumen
$51,663Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 96.1% "No" reflects Russia's entrenched occupation of Crimea since the 2014 annexation, featuring layered defenses, air superiority, and naval basing that demand unattainable amphibious or overland assaults from Ukraine amid manpower shortages and eastern frontline pressures. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments through mid-March 2026 highlight Ukrainian territorial gains limited to about 460 square kilometers in February—far from the peninsula—with Russian forces seizing settlements and investing billions in occupied infrastructure, including Crimea. No verified advances toward recapture have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring logistical barriers. Scenarios like a massive Western arms surge enabling breakthroughs or sudden Russian withdrawal remain possible but improbable before June 30 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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