Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched occupation and heavy fortifications on the peninsula since 2014, including dense air defenses and Black Sea Fleet assets. Recent Ukrainian mid-range strikes have degraded Russian launchers like Zirkon and Iskander systems in occupied Crimea, while tactical gains of over 300 square kilometers in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since January signal southern momentum, but frontlines remain distant from the land bridge, with Russian elite redeployments countering advances. Only three months remain amid manpower shortages and attrition warfare, rendering a breakthrough improbable. Scenarios like massive Western aid surges or Russian frontline collapses could shift odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird die Ukraine bis zum 30. Juni 2026 das Territorium der Krim zurückerobern?
Wird die Ukraine bis zum 30. Juni 2026 das Territorium der Krim zurückerobern?
Ja
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched occupation and heavy fortifications on the peninsula since 2014, including dense air defenses and Black Sea Fleet assets. Recent Ukrainian mid-range strikes have degraded Russian launchers like Zirkon and Iskander systems in occupied Crimea, while tactical gains of over 300 square kilometers in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since January signal southern momentum, but frontlines remain distant from the land bridge, with Russian elite redeployments countering advances. Only three months remain amid manpower shortages and attrition warfare, rendering a breakthrough improbable. Scenarios like massive Western aid surges or Russian frontline collapses could shift odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$51,659Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched occupation and heavy fortifications on the peninsula since 2014, including dense air defenses and Black Sea Fleet assets. Recent Ukrainian mid-range strikes have degraded Russian launchers like Zirkon and Iskander systems in occupied Crimea, while tactical gains of over 300 square kilometers in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since January signal southern momentum, but frontlines remain distant from the land bridge, with Russian elite redeployments countering advances. Only three months remain amid manpower shortages and attrition warfare, rendering a breakthrough improbable. Scenarios like massive Western aid surges or Russian frontline collapses could shift odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volumen
$51,659Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched occupation and heavy fortifications on the peninsula since 2014, including dense air defenses and Black Sea Fleet assets. Recent Ukrainian mid-range strikes have degraded Russian launchers like Zirkon and Iskander systems in occupied Crimea, while tactical gains of over 300 square kilometers in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since January signal southern momentum, but frontlines remain distant from the land bridge, with Russian elite redeployments countering advances. Only three months remain amid manpower shortages and attrition warfare, rendering a breakthrough improbable. Scenarios like massive Western aid surges or Russian frontline collapses could shift odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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