Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills with Yars nuclear-capable missiles in Siberia on April 2, signaling ongoing readiness amid post-New START tensions after the treaty's February 5 expiration removed limits on deployed warheads. President Putin ordered proposals for resuming nuclear testing in late 2025, and Moscow has vowed to match any U.S. test while denying secret detonations, but no explosive tests have occurred since 1990, upholding the de facto CTBT moratorium. Traders weigh escalation risks from Ukraine conflict rhetoric against diplomatic signals for new arms talks involving China; upcoming missile tests at Kapustin Yar could test market nerves without confirming a full nuclear detonation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$1,326,404 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
2%
September 30, 2026
9%
31. Dezember 2026
12%
$1,326,404 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$981 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$339 Vol.
9%
31. Dezember 2026
$510 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills with Yars nuclear-capable missiles in Siberia on April 2, signaling ongoing readiness amid post-New START tensions after the treaty's February 5 expiration removed limits on deployed warheads. President Putin ordered proposals for resuming nuclear testing in late 2025, and Moscow has vowed to match any U.S. test while denying secret detonations, but no explosive tests have occurred since 1990, upholding the de facto CTBT moratorium. Traders weigh escalation risks from Ukraine conflict rhetoric against diplomatic signals for new arms talks involving China; upcoming missile tests at Kapustin Yar could test market nerves without confirming a full nuclear detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,326,404Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills with Yars nuclear-capable missiles in Siberia on April 2, signaling ongoing readiness amid post-New START tensions after the treaty's February 5 expiration removed limits on deployed warheads. President Putin ordered proposals for resuming nuclear testing in late 2025, and Moscow has vowed to match any U.S. test while denying secret detonations, but no explosive tests have occurred since 1990, upholding the de facto CTBT moratorium. Traders weigh escalation risks from Ukraine conflict rhetoric against diplomatic signals for new arms talks involving China; upcoming missile tests at Kapustin Yar could test market nerves without confirming a full nuclear detonation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,326,404Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills with Yars nuclear-capable missiles in Siberia on April 2, signaling ongoing readiness amid post-New START tensions after the treaty's February 5 expiration removed limits on deployed warheads. President Putin ordered proposals for resuming nuclear testing in late 2025, and Moscow has vowed to match any U.S. test while denying secret detonations, but no explosive tests have occurred since 1990, upholding the de facto CTBT moratorium. Traders weigh escalation risks from Ukraine conflict rhetoric against diplomatic signals for new arms talks involving China; upcoming missile tests at Kapustin Yar could test market nerves without confirming a full nuclear detonation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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