Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, which ended mutual verification of strategic arsenals. In November 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals for resuming tests in potential response to U.S. actions, but no detonations have followed amid stalled arms control talks. Recent Russian military exercises on April 3 involving nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles underscore capabilities without crossing into actual explosions, while planned 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems remain conventional. Escalation risks in Ukraine, diplomatic tensions, and international pressure maintain low trader consensus for near-term tests, with ongoing hybrid warfare and NATO dynamics as key monitors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$1,327,712 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
2%
September 30, 2026
10%
31. Dezember 2026
12%
$1,327,712 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$1,327 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$371 Vol.
10%
31. Dezember 2026
$1,440 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, which ended mutual verification of strategic arsenals. In November 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals for resuming tests in potential response to U.S. actions, but no detonations have followed amid stalled arms control talks. Recent Russian military exercises on April 3 involving nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles underscore capabilities without crossing into actual explosions, while planned 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems remain conventional. Escalation risks in Ukraine, diplomatic tensions, and international pressure maintain low trader consensus for near-term tests, with ongoing hybrid warfare and NATO dynamics as key monitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,327,712Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, which ended mutual verification of strategic arsenals. In November 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals for resuming tests in potential response to U.S. actions, but no detonations have followed amid stalled arms control talks. Recent Russian military exercises on April 3 involving nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles underscore capabilities without crossing into actual explosions, while planned 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems remain conventional. Escalation risks in Ukraine, diplomatic tensions, and international pressure maintain low trader consensus for near-term tests, with ongoing hybrid warfare and NATO dynamics as key monitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,327,712Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, adhering to a de facto moratorium despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, which ended mutual verification of strategic arsenals. In November 2025, President Putin directed officials to prepare proposals for resuming tests in potential response to U.S. actions, but no detonations have followed amid stalled arms control talks. Recent Russian military exercises on April 3 involving nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles underscore capabilities without crossing into actual explosions, while planned 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems remain conventional. Escalation risks in Ukraine, diplomatic tensions, and international pressure maintain low trader consensus for near-term tests, with ongoing hybrid warfare and NATO dynamics as key monitors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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