This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
May 6 2026
Continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine with no nuclear test despite nuclear saber rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Reports of Russia’s conventional military actions and nuclear threats without actual nuclear testing maintained the market’s low probability, reflecting skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
May 5 2026
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to
September 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes “multiple failed tests of new systems” but also highlights Russia’s explicit statement that it will continue to abide by New START limits, reducing perceived testing intent
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reiterates Russia’s nuclear modernization amid failed tests and no new detonations
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The latest U.S. assessment confirmed Russia’s ongoing modernization and failed test attempts without any nuclear test, sustaining the market’s low odds.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
U.S. and Russian officials publicly agree to postpone planned solid‑fuel ICBM tests, emphasizing “strategic stability” and stating no nuclear‑explosive tests are planned for 2026
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 22 2026
Congressional report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization and rejection of limits on nonstrategic nuclear weapons
The report emphasized Russia’s nuclear posture and modernization but noted no nuclear test activity, supporting the market’s stable low probability for a test.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia or the United States would break a “global non‑testing norm” and likely prompt other states to follow
Apr 21 2026
Head of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Robert Floyd cautioned at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S. or Russia would trigger a dangerous global spiral, reinforcing international pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium and dampening market expectations.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new detonations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment revealed Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal amid multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges but no confirmed nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Mar 28 2026
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterates commitment to the CTBT moratorium, saying Moscow will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so first
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Russischer Atomtest von...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Dezember 2026" mit 8%, gefolgt von „30. September 2026" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 8¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 8% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Russischer Atomtest von...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $1.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 5, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Russischer Atomtest von...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Russischer Atomtest von...?" ist „31. Dezember 2026" mit nur 8%, dicht gefolgt von „30. September 2026" mit 5%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Russischer Atomtest von...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Russischer Atomtest von...?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $1.4 million Handelsvolumen bei “Russischer Atomtest von...?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Russischer Atomtest von...?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 8¢ für „31. Dezember 2026" im Markt „Russischer Atomtest von...?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 8% sehen, dass „31. Dezember 2026" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 8¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 92¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Das geplante Enddatum des Marktes „Russischer Atomtest von...?" ist verstrichen, aber der Markt wurde noch nicht offiziell aufgelöst. Das Enddatum gibt an, wann das zugrunde liegende Ereignis voraussichtlich eintritt oder erkennbar wird. Der Markt bleibt bis zur formellen Auflösung für den Handel geöffnet. Prüfen Sie den Auflösungsstatus und den Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite für Updates.
Der Markt „Russischer Atomtest von...?" hat eine wachsende Diskussion mit 7 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Russischer Atomtest von...?". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen