Russian forces have intensified assaults around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, targeting positions northwest near Olenokostyantynivka and Verkhnya Tersa, north near Varvarivka, and west near Zaliznychne, but Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled these efforts. In late March 2026, Ukrainian troops conducted "cascade" strikes in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors, disrupting Russian advances and forcing redeployments from Donetsk Oblast, according to ISW assessments. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted significantly higher assault intensity there compared to other fronts. Geolocated footage confirms limited Russian gains southeast of Myrne southwest of Huliaipole on March 30, while Ukrainians advanced east of Pryluky northwest of the town. The settlement remains contested with gray zones, amid ongoing high-attrition clashes and no verified full capture. Traders monitor ISW maps for resolution on complete Russian control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Russland ganz Huliaipole erobern, bis...?
Wird Russland ganz Huliaipole erobern, bis...?
$660,115 Vol.
31. März
3%
30. April
74%
$660,115 Vol.
31. März
3%
30. April
74%
Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vXBbP9idYDbbC21RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 23, 2026, 8:12 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vXBbP9idYDbbC21RA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have intensified assaults around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, targeting positions northwest near Olenokostyantynivka and Verkhnya Tersa, north near Varvarivka, and west near Zaliznychne, but Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled these efforts. In late March 2026, Ukrainian troops conducted "cascade" strikes in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors, disrupting Russian advances and forcing redeployments from Donetsk Oblast, according to ISW assessments. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted significantly higher assault intensity there compared to other fronts. Geolocated footage confirms limited Russian gains southeast of Myrne southwest of Huliaipole on March 30, while Ukrainians advanced east of Pryluky northwest of the town. The settlement remains contested with gray zones, amid ongoing high-attrition clashes and no verified full capture. Traders monitor ISW maps for resolution on complete Russian control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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