Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by collapsed US-Iran nuclear negotiations in early March and the absence of any diplomatic handover agreement. IAEA reports from late February confirmed Iran's retention of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—despite prior US strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 that failed to eliminate stockpiles. While administration officials have weighed high-risk special forces operations to seize the material, no such mission has launched amid logistical challenges and escalation risks. Stalled talks, marked by disputes over verification and stockpile dilution, underscore significant barriers to resolution before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NEU
$18,328 Vol.
NEU
$18,328 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
NEU
$18,328 Vol.
NEU
$18,328 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by collapsed US-Iran nuclear negotiations in early March and the absence of any diplomatic handover agreement. IAEA reports from late February confirmed Iran's retention of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—despite prior US strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 that failed to eliminate stockpiles. While administration officials have weighed high-risk special forces operations to seize the material, no such mission has launched amid logistical challenges and escalation risks. Stalled talks, marked by disputes over verification and stockpile dilution, underscore significant barriers to resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$18,328Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by collapsed US-Iran nuclear negotiations in early March and the absence of any diplomatic handover agreement. IAEA reports from late February confirmed Iran's retention of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—despite prior US strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 that failed to eliminate stockpiles. While administration officials have weighed high-risk special forces operations to seize the material, no such mission has launched amid logistical challenges and escalation risks. Stalled talks, marked by disputes over verification and stockpile dilution, underscore significant barriers to resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$18,328Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by collapsed US-Iran nuclear negotiations in early March and the absence of any diplomatic handover agreement. IAEA reports from late February confirmed Iran's retention of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—despite prior US strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 that failed to eliminate stockpiles. While administration officials have weighed high-risk special forces operations to seize the material, no such mission has launched amid logistical challenges and escalation risks. Stalled talks, marked by disputes over verification and stockpile dilution, underscore significant barriers to resolution before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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