Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict involving US and Israeli military actions. Persistent unverified reports from mid-March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in related strikes, possibly leaving him in a coma or incapacitated, with no public appearances fueling doubts over effective leadership continuity. Traders weigh official Iranian statements against intelligence assessments and statements like US President Trump's recent claim of "regime change," while monitoring diplomatic escalations, potential further airstrikes, or emergency Assembly sessions that could trigger additional transitions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$5,803,462 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
30. April
10%
31. Mai
15%
30. Juni
19%
31. Dezember
34%
$5,803,462 Vol.
30. April
$1,486,269 Vol.
10%
31. Mai
$54,888 Vol.
15%
30. Juni
$34,991 Vol.
19%
31. Dezember
$998,251 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict involving US and Israeli military actions. Persistent unverified reports from mid-March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in related strikes, possibly leaving him in a coma or incapacitated, with no public appearances fueling doubts over effective leadership continuity. Traders weigh official Iranian statements against intelligence assessments and statements like US President Trump's recent claim of "regime change," while monitoring diplomatic escalations, potential further airstrikes, or emergency Assembly sessions that could trigger additional transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volumen
$5,803,462Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict involving US and Israeli military actions. Persistent unverified reports from mid-March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in related strikes, possibly leaving him in a coma or incapacitated, with no public appearances fueling doubts over effective leadership continuity. Traders weigh official Iranian statements against intelligence assessments and statements like US President Trump's recent claim of "regime change," while monitoring diplomatic escalations, potential further airstrikes, or emergency Assembly sessions that could trigger additional transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,803,462Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 amid escalating regional conflict involving US and Israeli military actions. Persistent unverified reports from mid-March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in related strikes, possibly leaving him in a coma or incapacitated, with no public appearances fueling doubts over effective leadership continuity. Traders weigh official Iranian statements against intelligence assessments and statements like US President Trump's recent claim of "regime change," while monitoring diplomatic escalations, potential further airstrikes, or emergency Assembly sessions that could trigger additional transitions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen