Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Pakistan at 44% implied probability and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 39%, reflecting stalled ceasefire negotiations following marathon April talks in Islamabad that ended after 21 hours without agreement. Pakistan's repeated hosting of high-level delegations—including Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys like JD Vance—has elevated it as the primary neutral venue amid regional mediation pushes, outpacing traditional sites like Oman (site of February indirect nuclear talks) or Switzerland. Recent US-Pakistan meetings on May 11 underscore Islamabad's ongoing facilitation role, yet Iran's insistence on indirect formats and mutual recriminations over nuclear commitments sustain no-meeting odds. A confirmed second round announcement or Trump-Xi summit breakthrough could boost Pakistan, while escalation would favor delay.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWo findet das nächste diplomatische Treffen zwischen den USA und dem Iran statt?
Wo findet das nächste diplomatische Treffen zwischen den USA und dem Iran statt?
Pakistan 44.0%
Kein Treffen bis zum 30. Juni 39.0%
Schweiz 4.0%
Andere 2.8%
$4,830,121 Vol.
$4,830,121 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Pakistan
44%
Kein Treffen bis zum 30. Juni
39%
Schweiz
4%
Andere
3%
Katar
1%
Oman
1%
Andere - Europa
1%
Türkei
<1%
Österreich
<1%
USA
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Andere - Naher Osten/Nordafrika
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Russland
<1%
VAE
<1%
Iran
<1%
Irak
<1%
Kasachstan
<1%
Italien
<1%
Pakistan 44.0%
Kein Treffen bis zum 30. Juni 39.0%
Schweiz 4.0%
Andere 2.8%
$4,830,121 Vol.
$4,830,121 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Pakistan
$679,659 Vol.
44%
Kein Treffen bis zum 30. Juni
$818,386 Vol.
39%
Schweiz
$316,455 Vol.
4%
Andere
$264,569 Vol.
3%
Katar
$277,914 Vol.
1%
Oman
$290,179 Vol.
1%
Andere - Europa
$274,950 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$293,222 Vol.
<1%
Österreich
$202,168 Vol.
<1%
USA
$178,857 Vol.
<1%
Ägypten
$205,565 Vol.
<1%
Andere - Naher Osten/Nordafrika
$190,953 Vol.
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
$213,527 Vol.
<1%
Russland
$202,353 Vol.
<1%
VAE
$129,812 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$61,821 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$53,364 Vol.
<1%
Kasachstan
$70,556 Vol.
<1%
Italien
$105,829 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Pakistan at 44% implied probability and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 39%, reflecting stalled ceasefire negotiations following marathon April talks in Islamabad that ended after 21 hours without agreement. Pakistan's repeated hosting of high-level delegations—including Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys like JD Vance—has elevated it as the primary neutral venue amid regional mediation pushes, outpacing traditional sites like Oman (site of February indirect nuclear talks) or Switzerland. Recent US-Pakistan meetings on May 11 underscore Islamabad's ongoing facilitation role, yet Iran's insistence on indirect formats and mutual recriminations over nuclear commitments sustain no-meeting odds. A confirmed second round announcement or Trump-Xi summit breakthrough could boost Pakistan, while escalation would favor delay.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volumen
$4,830,121Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Pakistan at 44% implied probability and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 39%, reflecting stalled ceasefire negotiations following marathon April talks in Islamabad that ended after 21 hours without agreement. Pakistan's repeated hosting of high-level delegations—including Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys like JD Vance—has elevated it as the primary neutral venue amid regional mediation pushes, outpacing traditional sites like Oman (site of February indirect nuclear talks) or Switzerland. Recent US-Pakistan meetings on May 11 underscore Islamabad's ongoing facilitation role, yet Iran's insistence on indirect formats and mutual recriminations over nuclear commitments sustain no-meeting odds. A confirmed second round announcement or Trump-Xi summit breakthrough could boost Pakistan, while escalation would favor delay.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,830,121Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between Pakistan at 44% implied probability and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 39%, reflecting stalled ceasefire negotiations following marathon April talks in Islamabad that ended after 21 hours without agreement. Pakistan's repeated hosting of high-level delegations—including Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys like JD Vance—has elevated it as the primary neutral venue amid regional mediation pushes, outpacing traditional sites like Oman (site of February indirect nuclear talks) or Switzerland. Recent US-Pakistan meetings on May 11 underscore Islamabad's ongoing facilitation role, yet Iran's insistence on indirect formats and mutual recriminations over nuclear commitments sustain no-meeting odds. A confirmed second round announcement or Trump-Xi summit breakthrough could boost Pakistan, while escalation would favor delay.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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