Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to major powers conducting direct military action against Iran by March 31, reflecting de-escalation since Israel's limited October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's missile barrage. Key drivers include Israel's ongoing operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah amid Syria's instability, where rebels have captured Aleppo, disrupting supply lines without prompting full escalation. The incoming Trump administration, set for January 20 inauguration, introduces uncertainty on U.S. posture—potentially tougher sanctions or support for Israel but no confirmed strikes. Upcoming catalysts: Iranian responses to proxy setbacks or nuclear talks resumption could shift odds, though primary sources show restraint from official statements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$9,104,643 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
16%
VAE
14%
Katar
9%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
4%
Vereinigtes Königreich
4%
Ein EU-Land
4%
Türkei
3%
Frankreich
2%
Jordanien
2%
Deutschland
1%
Oman
1%
Kanada
1%
$9,104,643 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
16%
VAE
14%
Katar
9%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
4%
Vereinigtes Königreich
4%
Ein EU-Land
4%
Türkei
3%
Frankreich
2%
Jordanien
2%
Deutschland
1%
Oman
1%
Kanada
1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to major powers conducting direct military action against Iran by March 31, reflecting de-escalation since Israel's limited October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's missile barrage. Key drivers include Israel's ongoing operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah amid Syria's instability, where rebels have captured Aleppo, disrupting supply lines without prompting full escalation. The incoming Trump administration, set for January 20 inauguration, introduces uncertainty on U.S. posture—potentially tougher sanctions or support for Israel but no confirmed strikes. Upcoming catalysts: Iranian responses to proxy setbacks or nuclear talks resumption could shift odds, though primary sources show restraint from official statements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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